IKAR in Mass Media

Russian domestic wheat prices power to new highs

12 мая 2008 года

MOSCOW, March 24 (Reuters) - Russian domestic wheat prices powered to record highs last week despite the government's success in halting exports with a 40 percent tariff, leading traders to question how far the market can go.

Barley and maize prices were stable, Russian analysts said.

Hard wheat prices rose $14 last week to $390 per tonne, basis CBS, and soft milling wheat rose $6 to $367 per tonne, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) said.

"The situation is very fragile. Traders are saying they need a strategic rethink: if the currently extremely high prices will continue to rise or if the country has reached a historical maximum," IKAR said in a weekly commentary for Reuters.

Wheat prices in Siberia jumped by 500 roubles ($21.12) per tonne, while prices in the European part of Russia increased by 200-250 roubles over the last week, SovEcon analyst group said.

"As a result of the growth in the last few weeks, Siberian wheat prices have closed the gap with prices in the European part of Russia," SovEcon said.

As demand in Europe slows, the rate of price growth in Siberia will also slow down, SovEcon said. Feed wheat prices rose 150 roubles a tonne last week, it added.

Barley prices were unchanged at $311 per tonne, IKAR said.

SovEcon said maize prices rose only 50 roubles a tonne in the southern region of Russia, although those holding the grain were betting on a revival in demand from processors.

"It's too early to talk about the imminent stabilisation of the grain market. But it's possible the potential for further growth isn't that far from running out of steam," SovEcon said, noting the absence of speculative purchases by large traders.

SovEcon added an early start to spring sowings meant farmers needed money, so would be more likely to sell than hold grain.

IKAR said sunoil prices climbed to $2,055-2,070 per tonne and sunseed prices reached $930 per tonne, ex-works, last week.

IKAR said regional oilseed export prices were expected to rise after Ukraine introduced a 300,000-tonne export limit on sunflower oil to July 1.

"As the market expected Ukraine to export at least 500,000 tonnes of sunoil, it creates new tension regarding supply," IKAR said.

White sugar prices retreated to $700 per tonne in Krasnodar on low seasonal demand. But IKAR says a recovery is inevitable after the government said it would prolong the high seasonal duty on raw sugar imports to May.

Source: Reuters | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 115

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