IKAR in Mass Media

Russian wheat export prices fall again, analysts see shipments rising in March

12 марта 2024 года

MOSCOW, March 11 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices fell last week on continuing high supply in the world market, but analysts forecast significant growth in shipments from Russia in March.

The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in April was $198 a metric ton, down $5 from the previous week, the IKAR agriculture consultancy reported.

The Sovecon agriculture consultancy pegged the same class of wheat at $199 to $202 a ton FOB, compared with $208 to $212 a week earlier.

"We are forced to place our volume into this stuck, non-expanding sales market ... So far, the forecast is for very low prices until the end of the season," Arkady Zlochevsky, head of the Russian Grain Union, said at a press conference on Monday.

Russia exported 1.15 million tons of grain last week, up from 1.12 million tons the previous week. The exports included 1.03 million tons of wheat, up from 0.91 million tons a week earlier, Sovecon wrote, citing port data.

The consultancy's first estimate of wheat exports in March is 4.6-5.0 million tons, compared with 4.8 million tons a year earlier. Sovecon estimates February exports at 4.1 million tons.

Russian President Vladimir Putin last week estimated Russian grain exports in the 2023/24 season at 65 million tons.

According to Zlochevsky, Russian grain exports this season could reach 70 million tons if the government approves a 4 million-ton increase in the export quota.

To date, exports have already amounted to a record 47 million tonnes, he said.

About 4% of winter cereals in Russia are in "poor and sparse" condition and the overall state of the crop is not a cause for concern, Zlochevsky noted.

Last week, weather conditions were neutral for the new crop, Sovecon analysts wrote.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from a week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
11,600 rbls/t
-225 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
23,300 rbls/t
-125 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
69,850 rbls/t
0 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
37,600 rbls/t
+300 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$740/t
-$20

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$658.62/t
-$12.89/t

Source: Reuters | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 15

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