Daily Market Wire 30 March 2023
03 апреля 2023 года
Market movements overnight were small (mostly <1pc) and mixed
Cargill reportedly told Russia’s Agriculture Ministry it will stop exporting Russian grain from the start of the new marketing year (July 1, 2023). Cargill later clarified it would stop elevating Russian grain for export but intend to continue shipping grain from Russia. Viterra will also reportedly be doing the same. Apparently leading grain multinationals had been asked to leave Russia. Late last year, Russian fertiliser producer Uralchem said it would be interested in buying the Russian assets of Cargill and Viterra if they decide to leave.
Moscow-based Institute for Agricultural Market Studies IKAR pegged 2023-24 grain production at 131Mt down from 157.7Mt produced last year including wheat at 86Mt (104.2Mt previous year).
US private exporters reported sales of another 204,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to China during the 2022-23 marketing year, taking the March total over 3.1Mt.
Refinitiv Commodities Research revised downward its 2023-24 EU common wheat production forecast by 1.7Mt, to 132.2Mt (126.7Mt previous year). The cut reflected water shortages in southern and south-western regions of Europe. Winter crops entered spring in mostly fair to good conditions, but more precipitation was required to aid further crop development. Near-term forecasts pointed to a cold front across Europe, but average temperatures were not expected to fall below freezing. Weather forecasts for April indicate rainfall surpluses across Europe. It also cut 2023-24 rapeseed production forecast by 0.2Mt, to 20.4Mt (19.5Mt previous year), largely reflecting rainfall deficits across south-western Europe.
European Commission reported, as at 26 March, cumulative all-wheat exports were 23.8Mt, up 7pc from previous year, corn imports at 20.0Mt were up 68pc, barley exports at 6.7Mt were down 21pc, soybean imports at 8.7Mt were down 14pc on previous year, canola imports at 6.2Mt were up 58pc, sunflowerseed import at 2Mt was up 393pc and palm oil import of 2.7Mt was down 28pc compared to last year.
India’s Meteorological Department reported that, as at 28 Mar, cumulative month to date rainfall was estimated to be 28pc above the long-term average, with excessive or normal rainfall at 72pc of monitoring stations.
Kazakhstan’s Minister of Trade and Integration said annual wheat export volume to China could be increased to at least 1Mt, with one train loaded with grains currently on its way to China’s bonded zone as part of a pilot project.
Jordan’s state grain buyer reportedly purchased 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat from optional origins at $308.50/t c&f, for Sep shipment.
Local wheat and canola markets remained buoyant yesterday. In Western Australia trade liquidity was reported around the unchanged Kwinana ASW1 bid price $355/t FIS. Barley remained steady. Pulses also kept their market alive with lentil prices through Vic and SA pushing higher as the day progressed.
Seeding for 2023 is underway in WA. Grazing crops and long season canola are being planted in eastern Australia. With the good recent rainfall and abundant sub soil moisture, growers are taking advantage of the early start with the potential El Ninõ lurking in the background for later in the year.
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