Wheat Seeing Marginal Turnaround Tuesday Action
02 ноября 2022 года
Wheat is weaker in early Tuesday trade, after some contracts posted 50 cent or larger gains on Monday.
Nearby Chicago is leading the charge, down 7 ¼ cents across the front months. KC contracts are down 1 ½ to 4 ½ cents .The initial reaction from Russia announcing their intent to no longer guarantee safe passage for Ukraine’s grain exports had wheat futures gap higher. Futures faded some through midday. Afternoon action resumed the rally with CBT futures closing 38 3/4 to 53 cents higher in the front months. Dec SRW held under the $9/bu mark at the highs. KC futures settled the first trading day of the week with 40 1/2 to 53 3/4 cent front month gains. MPLS wheats rallied 28 1/4 to 36 1/4 cents.
Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS had 87% of the 23/24 winter wheat crop planted. That was up 8% points through the week and is 2% points ahead of the average pace. In KS, 87% of the winter wheat was in the ground compared to 88% on average. Emergence reached 62% as of 10/30, compared to 66% on average. That was enough for the first preliminary ratings – NASS scored the crop 17% VP, 18% P, 37% A, 23% G, 5% E for a Brugler500 Index of 281. Last year’s rating was 322 on the Brugler500.
Weekly USDA data had 137,082 MT of wheat export inspections. That was up from 133k MT last week and above the 131k MT from the same week last year. HRS was the top variety with 61.8k MT of the total, followed by 48k MT of HRW. The weekly data had the MYTD total at 9.646 MMT as of 10/27, compared to 9.668 MMT during the same period last year.
IKAR estimated the Russian 22/23 wheat crop at 101 MMT with 50 MMT of exportable supply.
Buenos Aries Grains Exchange left their Argentine wheat forecast for 22/23 wheat at 15.2 MMT.
Dec 22 CBOT Wheat closed at $8.82 1/4, up 53 cents, currently down 7 1/4 cents
Mar 23 CBOT Wheat closed at $8.99 1/4, up 50 1/4 cents, currently down 7 1/4 cents
Cash SRW Wheat was $8.15 on Monday, up 52 1/4 cents,
Dec 22 KCBT Wheat closed at $9.78 3/4, up 53 3/4 cents, currently down 4 1/4 cents
Cash HRW Wheat was $9.37 on Monday, up 53 5/8 cents,
Dec 22 MGEX Wheat closed at $9.81 1/4, up 36 1/4 cents, currently down 5 1/2 cents
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