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IKAR in Mass Media

Wheat Falls on Higher U.S. Dollar -- Daily Grain Highlights

30 сентября 2022 года

-- Wheat for December delivery fell 3.7% to $8.83 1/2 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Friday, with traders taking a risk-off approach to grains and markets in general in reaction to rising interest rates as well as a new 20-year high on the USD index.

-- Soybeans for November delivery fell 2.1% to $14.25 a bushel.

-- Corn for December delivery fell 1.9% to $6.79 a bushel.

HIGHLIGHTS

Hands-Off Approach: Grain futures trading on the CBOT fell Friday as wider markets continued to digest the Federal Reserve's 75 basis-point hike earlier this week, along with other central banks around the world raising rates.

"The weakening price trend since the U.S. central bank raised its lending rate ... continues to hold a bearish sway across a host of asset classes -- including CBOT grain futures," said AgResource in a note.

A strong U.S. dollar also pressured grains. The ICE index continued to rise, to its highest point in more than 20 years by climbing 1.5% Friday.

Rising Tide: Projections on the size of the Russian wheat crop continue to grow, which weighed on CBOT wheat futures.

Russian firm IKAR is now projecting the Russian wheat crop at 100 million metric tons, up from 97 million tons. Its estimate joins others that have increased their outlook, including SovEcon and the USDA in its last WASDE report.

The higher projections are pushing down wheat futures.

"Wheat is lower on extremely large Russian wheat production estimates and a fresh 20-year high in the USD," said Terry Reilly of Futures International in a note.

INSIGHTS

Rain Check: A La Niña climate that is expected to continue through the rest of the year appears to be supportive for corn and soybean crops being planted in Brazil with increased rainfall expected in those areas, Marex said in a note.

"Our rainfall outlook points to wetter conditions over Central Brazil," the firm said. "This includes over grain regions in Mato Grosso where a timely start to the rainy season will be important for the planting of soybeans and corn."

The strength of Brazilian crops is of interest to U.S. traders to see how much competition comes into the market.

Putin Potential: With a new round of military mobilization, traders are closely watching the rhetoric of Russian President Vladimir Putin to see if he signals any fresh challenges to the Black Sea grain export corridor.

While wheat shed value Friday, it may see more runups like the 7.6% surge earlier this week.

"The risk, however, is still to the upside, as there is no end to the ways that Putin can screw up the Black Sea wheat trade," said Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man Capital in a note.

AHEAD

-- The USDA is scheduled to release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. EDT Monday.

-- The USDA is due to release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. EDT Monday.

-- Cal-Maine Foods Inc. is scheduled to release its first-quarter earnings report after the stock market opens Tuesday.

https://marketscreener.com/

Source: marketscreener.com  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 1

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