→ IKAR in Mass Media → #3382
IKAR in Mass Media
TFM Morning Update 09-02-2022
05 сентября 2022 года
Take the Stress Out of Your Marketing Strategy. No hedge account. No margin calls. Just comprehensive, common-sense guidance at a great value.
Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.
Wheat prices overnight are up 12 1/4 in SRW, up 11 3/4 in HRW, up 12 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5 3/4; Soybeans up 13 3/4; Soymeal up $0.40; Soyoil up 0.38.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 1/4 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 10 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans down 53 1/2; Soymeal down $0.92; Soyoil down 2.91.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 25 in SRW, down 32 3/4 in HRW, down 30 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 3/4; Soybeans down 14; Soymeal up $4.20; Soyoil down 3.51.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 1% in SRW, up 9% in HRW, down -11% in HRS; Corn is up 12%; Soybeans up 11%; Soymeal up 11%; Soyoil up 21%.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans up 13 yuan; Soymeal up 14; Soyoil down 372; Palm oil down 378; Corn unchanged — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 65 ringgit (-1.63%) at 3929.
There were changes in registrations (20 Soymeal). Registration total: 3,084 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 61 Soyoil; 20 Soymeal; 40 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 1 were: SRW Wheat down 620 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,421, Corn down 6,175, Soybeans up 2,650, Soymeal down 1,155, Soyoil down 4,243.
Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, above to well above normal Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.
Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday, mostly in Texas. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south through Monday. Outlook: Isolated showers south Tuesday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.
Western Midwest Forecast: Isolated showers Friday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.
Eastern Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.
The player sheet for Sept. 1 had funds: net sellers of 10,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 10,500 corn, sellers of 9,500 soybeans, sellers of 0 soymeal, and sellers of 10,000 soyoil.
US Soybean Crushings at 181M Bushels in July: USDA
USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.
Saskatchewan Says Harvest Progress Lags Five-Year Average
Harvest is 23% complete as of Aug. 29, trailing the five-year average of 26%, the province’s agriculture ministry says Thursday in a report.
Ukraine’s Winter Grain Planting May Drop by Half: Lobby Group
Ukraine’s planted areas for winter grains may fall by half this year after the Russian invasion deprived farmers of land, equipment and cash, according to the Ukrainian Agri Council lobby group.
A year earlier, Ukrainian farmers planted winter crops across 8.4 million hectares (20.8 million acres), including 6.2 million hectares of wheat, 0.9 million hectares of barley and 1 million hectares of rapeseed, according to the Agriculture Ministry’s data.
The sowing of winter wheat, rapeseed and barley is gaining pace now that grain exports from Ukrainian sea ports have resumed and provided cash flow for farmers, Andriy Dykun, the head of the council, said at a briefing on Thursday. Another incentive was support from the government, which extended its guarantees on bank loans for farmers.
Harvesting and sowing is complicated in liberated areas of eastern and northern Ukraine where the Russian army planted mines and destroyed farming equipment and is still under question in territory occupied by Russia.
Quarter of Argentina Wheat Planting Area Faces Poor Conditions
Nearly one quarter of Argentina’s wheat planting area is facing poor conditions including lack of rain, increased temperatures and frost, according to a report from the Buenos Aires grains exchange.
USDA Revises Up US 2022 Net Farm Income Estimate by $34B
The USDA expects farmer profits to be $148b in 2022, much higher than its previous est. made in February, according to the agency’s Farm Income and Financial Forecasts report, released on Thursday.
StoneX Cuts Brazil Summer Corn Outlook, Still Sees Record
Brazil’s 2022-23 summer corn crop estimate was cut to 29.85m tons, almost 500,000 tons less compared to previous estimate from August, StoneX says in report.
StoneX Lowers US Corn Production Outlook From Previous Month
US corn yields est. at 173.2 bu/acre, production at 14.168b bu, according to September survey from brokerage StoneX.
Russian Wheat Shipments Falter While Ukraine Ramps Up Exports
Russia is struggling to export its record wheat crop, just as the opening of a safe corridor supports an uptick in shipments from the country it invaded just over six months ago.
Shipments from Russia in July and August, the first two months of the new season, fell 22% to 6.3 million tons from a year earlier, according to ship lineup data from Logistic OS. Last month, Ukraine restarted shipments, exporting 1.5 million tons of food through the grain corridors established under a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey.
While the cargoes from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports are little more than a quarter of pre-war volumes, the government hopes shipments will pick up in the coming months. By contrast, the slow pace of Russian wheat exports is adding pressure to global supplies as harvests elsewhere are hit by drought. Food was exempted from western sanctions, but bankers and insurers are cautious about doing business with Russia and shipping lines are wary of sending their vessels into a war zone.
“We have reputational risk or informal sanctions,” Dmitry Rylko, general director of Moscow-based institute IKAR, said in an interview. “They cause problems with finding vessels for Russia Black Sea, and we see some banks don’t want to open letters of credit for wheat of Russian origin.”
Since the start of the new season, Russian shipments are no longer constrained by an export quota that was in place for the second half of the previous season to protect domestic supplies. Now the government is complaining about restrictions on trade, even after the EU and US stressed that food is not targeted by sanctions.
“Despite the statements made by Washington and Brussels that anti-Russian sanctions do not apply to food and fertilizers, the blocking obstacles to bank settlements, insurance and transportation of goods that have arisen as a result of their introduction still remain,” Russia’s foreign ministry said last week.
Russian farmers are also reluctant to sell wheat as a strong ruble and high export tax make it less attractive, while IKAR said some European customers weighted their orders to earlier in the year.
Russia and Ukraine signed a deal in July to release millions of tons stuck in Black Sea ports. The first cargoes were carried by vessels trapped in Odesa and two other Black Sea ports, while another 1.15 million tons of grain was shipped by rail in the first 23 days of August, according to Ukragroconsult.
Still, it remains to be seen whether shipments can be accelerated further as Ukrainian forces mount a counter-offensive in the south of the country. Before the war, 5 to 6 million tons of grain were typically dispatched monthly via its Black Sea ports.
The United Nations, which brokered the deal to end the logjam at Ukrainian ports, has emphasized the importance of Russian fertilizers and agricultural commodities making it to customers.
Russian exports are starting to speed up slightly, something that’s essential to the global wheat market, according to Agritel. IKAR expects shipments to rise to 4 million tons in September, though that would still be behind the 4.7 million tons exported a year earlier.
“The wheat production of the five major exporters outside the Black Sea is barely progressing compared to last year,” Agritel analyst Nathan Cordier said at a briefing on Tuesday. “It will not allow them to cover a failure of Ukraine or Russia.”
French Corn Ratings Extend Drop With 45% in Good State: AgriMer
The share of France’s corn crop that’s in good or very good condition fell to 45% as of Aug. 29, crops office FranceAgriMer said on its website, marking a new low in the data.
In the previous week, 47% of corn crop was rated good or very good, which was the lowest share for the time of year in at least a decade
Supply of China’s daily necessities generally sufficient: commerce ministry
Market supply of China’s daily necessities is generally sufficient, with slight price fluctuations, an official with the Ministry of Commerce said on Thursday.
Wholesale prices of grain, pork, eggs and vegetables went up by 0.4 percent, 1.4 percent, 4 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively, in the week from Aug. 22 to Aug. 28, compared with the first week of August, ministry spokesperson Shu Jueting told a press conference.
Beef and fruits posted lower prices while prices of edible oil and mutton remained unchanged during the same period.
With the Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, the ministry will closely monitor the supply and prices of staple goods to guarantee market supply, Shu said.
“Frozen pork, beef and mutton will be released from central reserves in batches to increase meat supply during the upcoming holiday,” the spokesperson added.
World Food Prices Extend Decline as Supply Uptick Offers Relief
Global food prices fell for a fifth month after demand for some products weakened and there was a seasonal uptick in supplies.
Wheat harvests in the northern hemisphere are helping ease supply constraints, while more grain trickles out of ports in Ukraine. A United Nations index of world food costs dropped 1.9% in August from the previous month, data showed Friday. The index remained at the lowest level since January.
Falling prices may offer some relief to consumers as they grapple with a deepening cost-of-living crisis. Still, the declines are not as sharp as in July when food prices plunged the most since 2008, and remain higher than a year ago. Food inflation shows no signs of easing in many nations, with higher energy prices likely to boost processing costs. Harvests may shrink in the long term as farmers curb fertilizer use.
Concerns over the impact of drought on corn harvests have partly offset declines in grain prices. And while more grain is leaving Ukraine, the volume is still far below the norm and lost farmland and weak local prices are threatening its next wheat harvest.
The UN index tracks export prices for raw goods and excludes retail mark-ups, so it may take a while before their impact is felt by consumers.
US Barge Shipments of Grain Fell 4% Last Week: USDA
Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers declined in the week ending Aug. 27 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.
Brazil August Agriculture Exports by Volume: MDIC
Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.
US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Aug. 30
The following table shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Aug. 30, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.
Source: barchart.com | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 4
Feedstuffs & Ingredients
IKAR in Mass Media
Exhibitions & Events
Work in agriculture
© 2002—2023 IKAR. Institute for Agricultural Market Studies
24, Ryazansky str., off. 604, Moscow, Russia
Tel: +7 (495) 232-9007 firstname.lastname@example.org