IKAR in Mass Media

Russia’s July wheat exports seen modest amid logistics problems

13 июля 2022 года

Russian wheat exports are expected to remain muted in July despite lower export tax, a massive crop and a weakening rouble RU/RUB as problems with logistics and trade finance caused by Western sanctions persist.

The world’s largest wheat exporter is expected to have record amounts of the crop available to supply abroad in the July-June marketing season, and reduced grain export taxes sharply on July 1 to support shipments.

The IKAR agriculture consultancy said on Monday that it downgraded its forecast for Russia’s July wheat exports to 1.7-2.0 million tonnes from the previously expected 2.0-2.3 million tonnes.

“Early July exports look sluggish – line-up volume and exporters’ commitment remain low,” Sovecon, another consultancy, said in a note.

It currently estimates Russia’s July wheat exports at 2.3 million tonnes vs 1.1 million tonnes in June.

“From that level we currently expect exports to go to at least 4.0 million tonnes in August. If we do not hit that level, the total season export target could be in trouble and should be revised lower,” it added.

Sovecon currently expects Russia’s wheat exports in the July-June season at 42.6 million tonnes.

Weekly exports from Russia sped up last week – to 340,000 tonnes of grain vs 250,000 tonnes a week earlier – but still remain low for this time of the season.

Russian wheat export prices fell last week under pressure from the new crop, the weaker rouble and lower export tax.

“Russian wheat prices are declining but they need to go further down to help make it more competitive,” Sovecon said.

Source: Reuters | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 3

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