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IKAR in Mass Media

The Black Sea is a region in turmoil

23 марта 2022 года

Trade flows out of the Black Sea region, particularly from Ukraine ports, have been severely disrupted by Russia's invasion of its western neighbour on February 24.

Exports from this region are a vital component of the globe's food supply.

A prolonged disruption will have huge ramifications across the world.

Nonetheless, it would be unrealistic to expect demand for Black Sea wheat to completely vanish at this point in proceedings.

Russia has reportedly mined the key shipping lanes from Odesa, and other Ukraine ports, to the Bosphorus. This is making navigation extremely hazardous.

Additionally, the Russian navy continues to restrict the movement of vessels wishing to leave the Black Sea that have loaded at Ukraine ports.

The exact number of ships in question is unclear.

But, according to one report, it could be as high as 200-300 ships - many of which are carrying grain such as wheat and corn.

Another report suggested it was around 100 ships affected.

The Black Sea is a marginal sea of the Atlantic Ocean with an area of 436,402 square kilometres, which is about 75 per cent of the size of Ukraine.

It is bordered by Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine.

Vessels navigating the Black Sea have just one entrance and one exit - the Bosphorus.

It is a narrow strait that bisects Istanbul and forms part of the continental boundary between Asia and Europe.

The Bosphorus connects the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara, which in turn is connected to the Aegean Sea and then the Mediterranean Sea via the Dardanelles.

This makes it very easy for the Russian navy to control the flow of vessels out of the Black Sea.

On Friday of last week, at least six oil tankers carrying about 300,000 tonnes of Russian oil passed through the Bosphorus unimpeded and onto their destination.

This followed passage of 800,000, 400,000, 400,000 and 600,000 tonnes of Russian oil in the preceding four days.

An interesting analogy from the Black Sea News suggested the US$200 million value of Friday's shipments was equivalent to the cost of about 30 Russian Kalibr cruise missiles.

And it is not only oil tankers that are departing the Black Sea.

According to the leading Russian agricultural consultancy, SovEcon, the pace of Russian wheat shipments is returning to normal.

SovEcon reported that 520,000 tonnes was shipped last week and 410,000 tonnes in the previous week via Black Sea ports.

This is despite indications that the war had shut down Russian exports and that shipping lines are no longer servicing Russian ports.

While Ukraine ports will likely remain closed until the war ends, Russian ports are open for business and are very busy, according to SovEcon.

Private Russian consultancy IKAR reported that export vessels were being loaded at all five Black Sea grain terminals after a pause of a week to 10 days at the beginning of the conflict.

But it is likely that much of the grain loaded since February 24 was for sales made prior to the invasion of Ukraine.

Many of the vessels loaded in the first half of March could well have already been in the Black Sea when the war began - either en route to their loadport, anchored at Russian ports waiting to berth or already loading.

The export pace is so hot that SovEcon recently upped its forecast for the country's March wheat shipments from 1.3 million tonnes to 2 million tonnes due to the strong export demand.

That expectation was supported by IKAR last week, which announced that it now expected March wheat exports to exceed 2 million tonnes.

While freight rates are substantially higher, so too are global prices, and some consumers still desire Russian wheat it seems.

Meanwhile, Egypt - the world's largest wheat importer - has continued to receive imports from the Black Sea region since the Ukraine war began.

Shipments of about 63,000 tonnes from each of Ukraine, Russia and Romania have all successfully exited the Black Sea and were expected to berth sometime last week.

A vessel carrying about 65,000 tonnes of Romanian wheat was discharged the previous week.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has Egypt pencilled-in for 12.5 million tonnes of wheat imports in the 2021-22 season.

It typically purchases about 80 per cent of its import requirements from Russia and Ukraine.

Putin's invasion of Ukraine has prompted Egyptian authorities to take action to protect domestic food supplies.

On March 12, the government there banned exports of wheat, cooking oil, corn, lentils, pasta, flour and faba beans.

The Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade expects Egypt to have about eight months of wheat reserves when the domestic harvest concludes in April.

But the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) is reportedly working on importing wheat from alternative origins, including Argentina, Canada, France, Kazakhstan, Romania and the United States - in case the conflict is protracted.

During last weekend, India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry surprisingly announced that it was in final talks to commence wheat exports to Egypt for the very first time.

A string of record crops and an elevated global price environment has seen India emerge as an exporter of note in 2021-22.

The USDA puts Indian wheat exports at a record 8.5 million tonnes.

But last week the International Grains Council raised its forecast from 8.9 to 11.6 million tonnes.

The Indian government is also canvassing several other countries, including Turkey, China, Bosnia, Sudan, Nigeria and Iran, regarding potential wheat exports.

Nothing like striking while the iron is hot.

Logistical challenges and quality issues have thwarted India's attempts to sell significant volumes into the world market in the past.

But the government is implementing a plan to facilitate an increased export campaign.

It is making additional rail wagons available for grain transport, ensuring wheat destined for export is tested at government-approved laboratories and working with various port authorities to prioritise the wheat export program.

The global financial sanctions placed on Russia may well be strangling its economy, but it is still shipping wheat, ably assisted by a significantly weaker ruble.

Russia is presumably being paid for its wares and earning some of the US dollars that the sanctions are so desperately trying to restrict.

Countries such as India and Australia are putting their hand up to fill the wheat supply gap resulting from the disruption to Ukraine's export program.

But the longer the war goes on the bigger the hole becomes.

And the bigger the hole becomes, the greater the upward pressure to prices until the war ends and/or demand is rationed.

https://theland.com.au/story/7664801/demand-for-russian-wheat-remains-strong-despite-the-war/

Source: theland.com.au  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 5

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