IKAR in Mass Media

Russia seen boosting sugar output, imports -IKAR

17 февраля 2010 года

MOSCOW, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Russia may raise domestic beet sugar output by one-third to over 4.2 million tonnes this year and imports of cane raws by 66 percent to at least 2.4 million tonnes, leading Russian sugar market analysts said on Wednesday.

"A substantial increase in the area to be sown with sugar beets of no less than 15 percent to 1 million hectares is expected in 2010 due to record high Russian sugar prices," the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) said.

IKAR said high sugar prices and a change in Russia's import tariff, to $140 per tonne from January 2010 and $50-85 from May to end-July versus $165 in 2009, indicate sugar prices may rise to at least 24,000 roubles ($809.4) per tonne in autumn 2010.

But if sugar refineries stop upgrades, an increase in sugar beet output in regions with insufficient processing capacity will generate huge beet losses, it said. This would mean output could increase less, to approximately 3.8 million tonnes. IKAR estimates Russia will produce 3.21 million tonnes of sugar from the 2009 beet crop, slightly less than the 3.25 million forecast by the Russian Sugar Producers' Union, the main industry lobby.

IKAR said India bypassed Russia as the world's second-largest sugar importer in 2009, but that imports may rise in 2010.

"IKAR forecasts raw sugar imports, including tolling, to be no less than 2.4 million tonnes in 2010 compared with 1.45 million tonnes in 2009 if consumption remains at 5.7-5.8 million tonnes," it said in a monthly note.

It said the bulk of imports would take place between the end of May and the end of July because of the low tariff. In April and in most of May, imports would be negligible on expectations of the tariff decline and insufficient world market supply. IKAR said Russian sugar stocks by the end of 2009 were 2.22 million tonnes, the lowest in the last 13 years.

It said a notable deficit of sugar may be created in April or May due to an expected pause in imports ahead of the May tariff decline and low demand for sugar at the start of the year.

In 2009, Russia exported 139,000 tonnes of sugar refined for a fee from imported raws under tolling schemes, up from 56,000 tonnes in 2008.

The Russian Sugar Producers Union expects the country's imports this year to total up to 2.25 million tonnes.

Source: Reuters | #sugar | Comments: 0 Views: 77

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