Russia grain prices up on export demand, govt buys
18 ноября 2009 года
MOSCOW, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Russia's grain prices kept rising last week on exporters' demand and the government intervention purchases, analysts and the grain lobby said on Monday.
"The interventions have proved their efficiency... prices were going up by 50-100 roubles ($1.72-$3.45) (a tonne) per week in the last few weeks," Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the lobby, the Russian Grain Union, told reporters. The Russian government bought a total of 103,950 tonnes of wheat in the two days of intervention tenders held last week, but high competition pushed prices down to the region close to market levels from the government-announced top levels.
The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) said that producers in the south of Russia have been quite hesitant to sell at market prices, waiting for the government purchases.
But due to disappointing intervention results, producers tend to offer at market prices, and the market is reviving in the south Russia with growing supply of grain, it said in a weekly note.
IKAR said its ordinary wheat forward export price Index has risen to $187-189 per tonne from $178. Yet the rise was notional as there was practically no demand for this cereal.
On the other hand, export prices for wheat at small Azov Sea ports ranged rather wide depending on the cereal quality - from $145 for feed wheat to $175 for 13.5 protein.
Feed barley export prices were unchanged due to low demand, at $135, FOB Novorossiisk, IKAR said.
Zlochevsky said Russian exporters continued shipments even at a loss. He believeed that exports could stop generating losses at FOB price for ordinary wheat of $190-$200 per tonne.
He said that Russia had a higher exportable surplus of grain in the current 2009/10 crop year started in July than the nearly 23 million tonnes shipped out in 2008/09 due to high stocks remaining from the 2008 bumper crop of 108 million tonnes.
Zlochevsky said he estimated this year's crop at 93-95 million tonnes, a little higher than the official forecast of 90-93 million tonnes. SovEcon Agricultural analysts said exporters raised demand for feed wheat and maize. It said average offer prices for feed wheat rose by 150 roubles per tonne to 2,775 roubles and for maize by 100 roubles to 4,200 roubles.
It said demand for feed wheat was probably linked to a possible shipment to Bangladesh. Feed wheat and maize were also actively sought by domestic distillers and animal feed makers.
IKAR said crude sunoil forward export prices in the Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea ports are around $785-795.
Domestic crude sunoil prices followed the international ones, to the level of $805 per tonne from $775 a week ago. IKAR's domestic sunseed purchase price Index rose to $315 in comparison with $296 a week ago.
SovEcon believed prospects for a further rise of sunseeds and sunoil are rather week and it does not exclude a possible decline.
Soybean and rapeseed oil prices were stable at around $685 and $840 per tonne, respectively, IKAR said.
It said Russian white sugar prices were practically unchanged, at 24,400 roubles and $838 per tonne in Krasnodar, compared to 24,500 and $835 a week ago.
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