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IKAR in Mass Media

MOSCOW, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Russian grain prices changed little in the last week, save for a slight decline in rouble terms due to the currency strengthening versus the dollar, analysts said on Monday

03 октября 2009 года

MOSCOW, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Average Russian grain prices fell slightly last week as new crop grain poured amid low demand from exporters and domestic consumers, analysts said on Monday.

Forward contracts for ordinary milling wheat with 11.5 percent protein content were fixed at $158-$160 per tonne FOB Novorossiisk compared with $160-$162 a week before, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) said.

Feed barley was traded at around 130, unchanged from the previous week, it said. Exporters' CPT Novorossiisk bid prices were practically unchanged last week with major buyers offering 4,500 roubles ($146.5) per tonne of fourth-grade ordinary wheat, but low offer at this price level made some traders raise prices to 4,700-4,750 per tonne, SovEcon agricultural analysts said.

CPT prices at shallow water ports were 4,000-4,300 roubles, practically unchanged from 4,100-4,300 roubles a week before, SovEcon said.

It said trucks loaded with grain were queuing at the port of Novorossiisk, while traders with supply contracts to Egypt were scanning the market for cereals with low content of grains damaged by the wheat bug.

Trade activity on the domestic market was low as producers were reluctant to lower prices, SovEcon said.

Domestic ex-silo prices declined in rouble value, but remained practically unchanged in dollar value with weaker dollar, IKAR said, with third-grade trading at $130 per tonne and fourth-grade at $115 per tonne.

Feed wheat lost about $3, falling to $92 per tonne, while feed barley gained $1 and rose to $87 per tonne.

Maize prices were around $155 per tonne, some $5 up from a week before, IKAR said. SovEcon said offer prices for maize were at around 4,000 roubles per tonne.

IKAR has increased its forecast for Russia's grain output by 0.5 million tonnes to 93 million tonnes, including 56 million tonnes of wheat.

Analysts were divided about a government announcement that 6.3 billion roubles would be put aside this year for the grain intervention purchases.

SovEcon believes this sum will be used instead of the previously announced 20 billion, which in this case will hardly have a substantial impact on the market.

IKAR believes that the money will be channelled on top of the 20 billion and will be used to pay for the storage of already purchased grain.

IKAR said that to start intervention tenders this year the government has to solve some legal and organisation issues.

Sunseed harvesting in the south of Russia is delayed by rainy weather. Start-up prices are being formed at $275-310 per tonne, IKAR said.

If rains continue, prices may strengthen temporarily, it said.

IKAR said high sunseed prices for this season are rather unlikely, as low world soybean oil price will keep sunoil prices low as well. New crop soybean prices are being formed at $390 to $450 per tonne, depending on the protein content.

SovEcon said crushers offer buying sunseeds at 9,000-10,000 roubles per tonne including delivery.

Refiners' prices for sugar declined modestly to 24,000 roubles per tonne from 24,200 in Krasnodar. IKAR expects a further decline of producer prices due to rising new crop beat sugar supply pressure.

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 46

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