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Wheat Firming Higher After Weekend, 15.06.22

So far for Monday, the wheat markets are trading with double digit gains of near 12 cents after digesting the WASDE. Wheat traded lower early on Friday, but spiked higher on the report’s release. By the close SRW futures were fractionally mixed to 1 1/4 cents higher. July SRW ended the week with 30 3/4 cent gains after the past 3 weeks lower. KC wheats ended the day 7 to 8 3/4 cent gains, with July having posted a near 30 cent range on the day. MPLS spring wheat futures closed the day with fractional to 2 1/2 cent losses. USDA has the average cash price as $10.75/bu, which is unchanged from May’s figure.

Wheat Firming Higher After Weekend

Weekly CoT data showed the Chicago wheat specs were 2,349 contracts less net long at the close of 6/7. That was due to more longs leaving than shorts closed and left the group 12,675 contracts net long. In KC wheat, the funds were 37,498 contracts net long as of 6/7. That was 3,152 contracts less net long due to long liquidation. Managed money firms were 13,922 contracts net long in MPLS spring wheat. That was down 1,601 contracts also from long liquidation.

USDA’s June WASDE showed no changes to the demand side for either old crop or new crop wheat. New crop supply was lifted by 8 mbu. That came with a 581.8 mbu HRW estimate, down 7.2 mbu from May vs a 3.9 mbu bump in SRW and an 11.8 mbu increase in white winter wheat. The implied spring wheat output was steady at 556 mbu from May. The extra 8 mbu was carried through to 22/23 stocks, now figured at 627 mbu. The trade was looking for 623 mbu going in.

Global wheat production was reduced by 1.4 MMT to 773.43 MMT, as India was cut by 2.5 MMT and the U.S. was upped. Global wheat stocks are seen at 266.85 MMT, mostly indicative of the light production reduction.

Russia’s IKAR raised their 22/23 wheat crop by 2 MMT to 87 MMT. France’s AgriMer reported 66% of the wheat crop was good/ex as of 6/6. That is down from 67% last week citing heat and dryness - specifically in the main growing regions of France and Germany.

Jul 22 CBOT Wheat closed at $10.70 3/4, down 1/2 cent, currently up 12 1/4 cents
Cash SRW Wheat was $10.12, down 1/2 cent,
Jul 22 KCBT Wheat closed at $11.62 1/2, up 8 3/4 cents, currently up 12 cents
Cash HRW Wheat was $11.14 5/8, up 8 3/4 cents,
Jul 22 MGEX Wheat closed at $12.21 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents, currently up 14 cents
Sep 22 MGEX Wheat closed at $12.21 1/4, down 1 cent, currently up 12 3/4 cents

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