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Export prices for wheat of the Russian Federation continued to decline under pressure of new crop

Reuters, 07.07.20

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Export prices for Russian wheat declined last week amid the emergence of a new crop in the market and weak initial demand from exporters at the start of the new season.

Export prices for wheat of the Russian Federation continued to decline under pressure of new crop

Prices for wheat with 12.5-percent protein content and on FOB delivery fell $3 last week to $197.5 per tonne in Novorossiisk, according to a review SovEcon.

According to IKAR, the price of a ton in this class wheat with delivery in August in the black sea ports amounted to at the end of last week $197, although during the week and fell to $196 per ton.

Refinitiv data show that the price of wheat with 12.5 percent protein was at the end of last week in Novorossiysk $196,5 per tonne FOB.

According to preliminary official customs data referenced by SovEcon, Russia exported ended June 30, season 2019/20 years 40.4 million tons of grain, of which 32.6 million tons of wheat, and 3.9 million tonnes of barley and corn.

Export growth in the first days of the new marketing season was very low: from 1 to 3 July Russia exported 21,000 tons of wheat, 13,000 tons of corn and 85,000 tonnes of barley, should be from the preliminary port of the data given Sovacool. According to his forecasts, in the first half of July, the export may only close to 1 million tons.

Analysts expect that July exports will be lower than last year as wheat harvest started in Russia later this year.

In addition, some traders had feared in recent months to deal with the July delivery due to uncertainty of the crop in the South, and after last year’s losses related to the unwillingness of farmers to sell grain.

This reduced demand could trigger a more aggressive sales on the part of local farmers who must implement their part of the new crop, analysts said SovEcon. On Monday, the Agency lowered the forecast of wheat harvest this year.

In the domestic market, wheat prices fell sharply last week: wheat, third and fourth class – 300 roubles to roubles and 12.625 12.400 rubles per ton without transportation to the European part of Russia, SovEcon says.

Weather forecast for this and next week in Russia, is expected to be dry, but the accumulated soil moisture from previous rains will help the new crop to avoid losses, analysts said.

Sunflower prices declined last week by 275 roubles to 25.975 roubles per tonne on oil – by 250 rubles to 52.500 rubles per ton. The soybean prices fell 475 roubles to 28.375 rubles per ton. FOB export prices for sunflower oil fell $5 to $765 per ton.

The index of white sugar IKAR for the South of the Russian Federation decreased for the week to $375,78 per ton from $380,02, but grew up in rubles – up to 26.5 rubles per kilogram from 26.4 rubles.

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