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Russia's wheat exports may fall in july before rising in autumn, say analysts

Reuters, 04.07.20

* Russia's July wheat exports seen at 2 mln T - IKAR
* Monthly wheat exports may reach record in autumn - SovEcon
* No ministry export quotas expected in July-December

MOSCOW, July 3 (Reuters) - Russian wheat exports will fall in July after a slow start to the harvest but will rise in later months when there will not be export quotas, IKAR and SovEcon agriculture consultancies said.

The world's largest wheat exporter, which competes with the European Union, Ukraine and others to supply Africa and the Middle East, began harvesting wheat late this year. Yields have been lower so far but are expected to climb.

Russia's July wheat exports were expected to be 2 million tonnes, about 1 million tonnes lower than the same month a year ago, IKAR's Dmitry Rylko said.

Russian wheat exports might benefit from July to December due to a lower EU and Ukraine crop, SovEcon's Andrey Sizov said.

The arrival of the Australian crop, expected to be large, and possible Russian Agriculture Ministry quotas from January could make Russian wheat less competitive in the first half of 2021, he said.

Russia's grain exports will not be subjected to quotas from July to December, the Agriculture Ministry has said, but it could impose limits from January to June after reviewing the amount of wheat left for domestic consumption in the autumn.

Russia's exports at the start of the 2020/21 season, which began on July 1, could be lower as exporters traded cautiously in recent months due to uncertainty about the size of the southern region's crop and after facing losses a year ago, Sizov said.

If Russia's harvest goes well, its monthly wheat exports could reach a record of more than 5 million tonnes in the autumn, exceeding the August 2019 record of 5.4 million tonnes of grain, which included 4.9 million tonnes of wheat.

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