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North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Canola up as stormy weather approaches

MarketsFarm, 08.10.19

WINNIPEG, Oct. 7 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were higher Monday, as canola continued to show some recent independence.

Also, the markets have become nervous with this week’s weather forecast of snow and rain with freezing temperatures, according to a trader.

The system is to begin in southern Alberta on Tuesday and reach Manitoba by Thursday. The dramatic downturn in the weather will add more misery to the Prairie harvest that’s already far behind pace due to wet conditions.

The Canadian dollar was steady at mid-afternoon Monday at 75.11 U.S. cents gaining 0.02 of cent.

There were 24,637 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 33,707 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 18,146 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 462.60 up 1.90
Jan 471.20 up 1.50
Mar 479.90 up 1.40
May 486.80 up 1.30

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were steady to lower on Monday.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported this morning a private export sales of 198,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, and a sale of 240,000 tonnes to unknown destinations. Ahead of trade talks this week, China has purchased approximately 3.50 million tonnes of soybeans.

Trade talks between the U.S. and China are scheduled to resume on Thursday between top-level negotiators meeting in Washington. Reports said China’s industrial policies and government subsidies are to be excluded from this round of talks.

Following temperatures reaching into the low 20 Celsius, winter weather is set to strike the Canadian Prairies and the United States Northern Plains and Midwest starting Tuesday and extending throughout most of this week. Snow and rain, along with freezing temperatures are expected. The harvest is likely to come to a halt with concerns about crop quality.

Ahead of the USDA’s crop progress report later this afternoon, trade expectations are for the soybean harvest to be about 14 per cent complete, up from seven last week. However progress was about 20 points behind the five-year average.

Market predictions have called for the USDA to lower national soybean yields in Thursday’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates.

Dry conditions in Brazil have slowed its spring soybean planting. So far, farmers planted about one per cent of their crop. Brazil has been projected to produce approximately 122.0 million tonnes of soybeans.

CORN futures were higher on Monday, due the weather forecast.

The corn harvest was projected to be up to 17 per cent complete, but still well behind pace.

In Thursday’s supply and demand report, the markets are predicting the USDA will lower the national corn yield.

With about 466,520 tonnes of corn exported for the week ended Oct. 3, the U.S. exports have reached 2.02 million tonnes for the 2019/20, and are nearly 66 per cent behind this time last year.

WHEAT futures were mixed on Monday, with losses for Chicago and Kansas City and a gain for Minneapolis.

Trade expectations projected the U.S. spring wheat harvest to about 94 per cent complete. The five-year average is 100 per cent.

IKAR forecast the Russian wheat crop to increase by 400,000 tonnes to bring in 75.4 million tonnes. Russia is the world’s second largest producer of wheat.

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