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Where the margin is 2020

Where the margin is 2020
February 6-7, 2020, Moscow

IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Daily Market Wire 18 April 2019, 18.04.19

Small moves in grains, larger falls in oilseeds in offshore futures overnight; Wednesday’s settlements as follows.

  • Chicago wheat May contract up 2 cents per bushel to 447c;
  • Kansas wheat May contract up 3.5c to 420.5c;
  • MATIF wheat May contract down €1.25 to €185
  • Minneapolis wheat May contract up 0.25c to 527.50
  • Corn May contract down 0.75c to 358.25c;
  • Soybeans May contract down 9c to 879c;
  • Winnipeg canola May contract down C$3.30/t to $451.20
  • MATIF rapeseed May contract up €1.75 to €361.50
  • WTI crude oil May contract down US$0.29 per barrel to $63.76
  • Dow Jones down 3.12 points to 26449.54;
  • AUD down to 0.7177c,
  • EUR up to $1.12998;
  • CAD up to $1.334.

Market news

CBOT Wheat was up 2c to 447c, Kansas wheat up 3.5c to 420.5c, corn down -0.75c to 358.25c, soybeans down -9c to 879c and Matif canola was up 1.75€ to 361.5€. The Dow Jones was down -3.11 to 26449.54 , Crude Oil finished down -0.07c to 63.69c, AUD up to 0.71771c, CAD down to 1.33426c, (AUDCAD 0.95761) and the was EUR up to 1.12998c (AUDEUR 0.6351).

Wheat prospects all smiles

A relatively quiet day amid more private analysts increasing Russian production ideas. IKAR was the latest to increase the wheat crop, although they only went up to 79.5mmt vs SovEcons 83.4mmt out earlier in the week. The northern hemisphere simply doesn’t have a weather problem – and the market isn’t concerned about possible short falls from Australia so its all smiles and high fives from a production perspective. There are parts of Europe that still need to be watched but if Russia is >84mmt it will be hard for global markets to rally significantly.


Local markets took stock of Tuesday’s new crop basis rally with light trade on ASX wheat. Some of the longer range weather models put some rain into northern NSW and right through QLD however there was a lack of alignment between some of the other models. This morning doesn’t provide much in the way of hope for the next few weeks which gets us into the beginning of May. As we have constantly stressed, we have had later breaks that have still produced exportable surpluses. We are seeing the impact however on rotations with many growers dropping canola, as reflected in ample seed availability. Old crop still trying to rationalise northern hemisphere availability against a less than favourable new crop outlook.

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