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IGC raises wheat crop outlook

Reuters, 06.05.19

The International Grains Council (IGC) on Thursday nudged up its forecasts for world wheat production in the 2019/2020 season, largely reflecting an improved outlook for Russia's crop.

The inter-governmental body, in a monthly update, increased its global wheat crop forecast by 3 million tonnes to 762 million tonnes with Russia's production seen at 79.5 million, up from 77.1 million seen previously.

Favourable weather has boosted the prospects of another large grain harvest in Russia this year, analysts and traders said earlier this week.

Russia's IKAR agriculture consultancy on Thursday forecast a wheat harvest of 80.1 million tonnes.

Global wheat production is now seen well above the prior season's 735 million, leading to a rise in stocks which were estimated at 274 million at the end of the 2019/20 season, up from 264 million a year earlier.

Grain stocks at the end of 2019/20 were revised upwards to 588 million tonnes, from a previous forecast of 575 million but still down from 611 million a year earlier.

The IGC also increased its forecast for 2019/20 world corn (maize) production by 1 million tonnes to 1.125 billion tonnes. The prior season's crop was estimated at 1.118 billion.

Corn stocks at the end of 2019/20 were put at 275 million tonnes, up from 266 million estimated previously but still well below the 311 million estimated for 2018/19.

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