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IKAR in Mass and Industry Media


Russian 2018-19 sugar output seen down 9% on year

Platts/Kingsman Daily Sugar News, 06.02.19


The Russian sugar beet campaign is drawing to an end, with sugar production of 5.855 million mt as of January 28, according to figures from consultancy Ikar. With only 3,200 mt of beet left to be processed on the same day, the final sugar output for this season will only be marginally higher. This means that production this campaign is expected to be around 600,000 mt or 9% below 2017-18’s record high of 6.460 million mt.

The main factor behind this drop was the abnormally hot and dry weather this summer, which hit the beetproducing regions. The drought also cut the duration of the campaign to the shortest since 2014-15. Last season, the sugar beet campaign lasted about two months longer until the beginning of April.

For 2019-20, we expect sugar production in Russia to remain relatively flat on the year. The potential drop in planted acreage due to adverse market conditions at the expense of other crops, such as grains, should be offset by expectations of better weather than last year, which will boost beet yields.

The lower crop is also reducing Russian exports, which are expected to drop sharply from last season. From estimated exports of 560,000 mt in 2017-18, this season’s sugar shipments should drop by about half to 301,000 mt. An additional factor behind the drop in Russian exports is the fact that Uzbekistan, the main destination in 2017-18, is no longer importing whites but raws, following the restart of one of its refineries. Despite the fall in sugar exports, Russia is expected to remain a net exporter of sugar this season (even if by only 66,000 mt compared with 340,000 mt in 2017-18) because of the large stocks that it has been carrying as result of the bumper crops in the previous two campaigns. This trend is likely to continue into 2019-20, with just a 25,000-mt difference between exports and imports.

Platts/Kingsman Daily Sugar News http://platts.com/commodity/agriculture/sugar



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