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The Allendale Wake-Up Call, 09.02.19

Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for February 8, 2019.

Grain market traders are making their last minute position moves as they await data from the USDA after a month of waiting. With fresh doubt over a trade deal between the US and China, today's reports have the potential to change the conversation.

Today is report day! The monthly Supply and Demand report is being joined today by the January reports that were missed because of the government shutdown. Corn quarterly stocks are estimated at 12.092 billion bushels, soybeans 3.743, and wheat 1.957. US Ending stocks are estimated at 1.708 billion bushels of corn, soybeans .926, and wheat .989. Total winter wheat is estimated at 32.128 million acres.

World numbers have analysts looking for Brazil's total soybean crop at 116.99 million tonnes, and corn at 93.41. Argentine corn is estimated at 43.09, and soybeans are at 55.14 world ending stocks are seen at 268.09 million tonnes of wheat, 307.06 corn, and 112.67 soybeans.

Dmitry Rylko, Director General of Russia's Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), anticipates total 2018-19 Russian wheat harvest at 76.566 million tonnes, an increase from 2017-18's 72.07 million tonnes.

Weekly export sales for the week ending December 27th (due to the government shutdown) had corn sales of 503,117 metric tonnes, soybeans of 1,051,454 tonne sale (China was 808,000 of these sales), and wheat sales of 593,002. USDA may need to revise their whole-year export estimates for soybeans and wheat on today's Supply and Demand report.

Managed money funds were estimated sellers of 15,000 corn contracts, 7,500 soybeans, 10,000 wheat, 5,000 soymeal, and 1,500 soyoil in yesterday's trade.

Trade headlines continue to be followed closely with the latest having President Trump indicating that he and President Xi will not meet before the March 1st deadline. Many believe this means a deal is still far from certain.

Noel White, Tyson Foods President and CEO, said that African Swine Fever may be a sizable upside benefit to its pork business, and that the situation in China is likely a little worse than what is being reported. White made the statements in an earnings call with investors.

The lean hog index dropped to 57.16 yesterday. Today's LHI, covering cash hogs through Wednesday, will drop to 56.89. That will be the lowest LHI since January 10th.

Beef export sales for 2018 delivery (delayed data) ran only 3,179 metric tonnes for the week ending December 27. Pork sales for the week came to 3,788 metric tonnes. Included in that pork number is 15,200 tonnes to China. Mainland China now accounts for 23% of all 2019 delivery bookings.

Both the Cattle and Cattle on Feed reports will be issued on February 28th and 22nd respectively. The January Cold Storage report will be issued on February 22. The February CS report will be out on March 7.

Dressed Beef Values were lower with choice down 0.86 and select down 0.84. The CME feeder index is 141.81. Pork cut-out values were down 0.50.

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