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Grain Insights

agweb.com, 13.07.18


The FBN Team provides a macro-focused daily view of the world’s grain markets. Kevin McNew received a bachelor’s degree from Oklahoma State University and his master’s and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from North Carolina State University. He spent 10 years as a Professor of Economics with the University of Maryland and Montana State University focusing on commodity markets and is widely regarded for his ability to boil-down complex economic situations into easy-to-understand concepts for applied life.

USDA WASDE to be Released Today

China Prepared To Retaliate Against President Trump’s Latest Tariffs

The Chinese commerce ministry was “shocked” at the newest round of tariffs covering $200 billion worth of goods. The ministry plans on making a formal complaint to the World Trade Organization. China may opt to respond with non-tariff measures, such as more thorough import inspections, delayed approval for business mergers, and even boycotting American goods. President Trump’s tariffs will target goods such as computer components, coal, and industrial chemicals.

IKAR Slashes Their Russian Grain Production Estimate

IKAR, a major ag consulting agency in Russia, has decreased their projection for all Russian grain to 112.8 MMT from 114.7 MMT. IKAR’s wheat estimate was dropped to 70.8 MMT from 71.5 MMT amid weather concerns in S Russia and a delayed planting in Siberia. They also have reduced their export estimate, cutting down to 41 MMT from 43.2 MMT.

Corn, Soy Exports Come In Below Expectations

Old crop corn exports were down 9% week on week and down 33% from the 4 week average. Top buyers for corn were South Korea, Mexico, and Japan. Soybean exports decreased 72% from last week and 62% from their 4 week average as China has ceased all purchases. Export reductions totalled 296,900 MT for the week. Major purchasers were Egypt, Indonesia, and Argentina. Old crop bean meal exports also made a marketing-year low due to a number of cancellations from South American countries. Wheat exports also disappointed, falling 69% from last week as well as the 4 week average. Nigeria and the Philippines were the 2 biggest buyers and a cancellation of 129,300 MT was reported for unknown destinations.

 

Actual

Estimated

Last Week

Wheat

136.4

200-500

440

Corn-OC

402.1

400-800

441

Corn-NC

128

250-550

232

Soybeans-OC

158.6

200-500

562

Soybeans-NC

270.8

250-550

459

Soymeal-OC

37.5

50-250

133

Soymeal-NC

40.7

30-150

62

USDA WASDE Report Released At 11 AM CST

The trade expectation is that the USDA will increase their yield numbers for corn to 174.9 bpa (174 bpa June WASDE) and soybeans to 48.6 bpa (48.5 bpa Jun WASDE). If yield estimates are bumped up, that would be the first time a July WASDE increased the corn yield in 15 years and 24 years for beans. Corn production is expected to increase to 14.269 billion bushels (14.040 bbu Jun WASDE) and soybeans to 4.314 bbu (4.280 bbu Jun WASDE) due to an increase of planted acres for both crops ( 1.1 mil acres for corn, 0.58 mil acres for soybeans).

https://www.agweb.com/blog/cash-grain-insights-156/usda-wasde-to-be-released-today/



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