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Canola firms despite worries over carryout, 26.02.18

Winnipeg (CNS Canada) – The ICE Futures Canada canola complex finished higher on Thursday, despite growing fears that this year’s carryout could get much larger.

“We might end up being under last year’s number for exports,” said a trader in Winnipeg. “That means our carryout could balloon to 2.5 million tonnes pretty easily.”

He adds buyers have been shying away from canola in recent months, because it was deemed too expensive relative to other oilseeds. He says canola is starting to become more affordable though.

Weakness in the Canadian dollar was supportive along with some speculative buying.

However, losses in the U.S. soy complex undermined prices.

There are ideas that dryness problems in Argentina are pretty well baked into the market.

Around 21,679 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when around 40,573 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 6,498 of the contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

The soybean market finished slightly lower on Thursday due to technical selling.

At the USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum, government economists told delegates they expected farmers in the U.S. to plant 90 million acres of soybeans in 2018. That is slightly below last year’s figure and also below what most analysts were expecting to hear.

There are some weather forecasts calling for rain to fall in northwest Argentina next week, which was slightly bearish.

Corn futures finished slightly higher as dry weather in Argentina is starting to cut into corn yields.

The Rosario Grain Exchanged pegged Argentina’s soybean crop at 46.5 million tonnes. That was down roughly five million tonnes from the previous forecast.

The dominant May corn contract rose above the US$3.75 per bushel mark at one point today.

The USDA said it expects U.S. farmers to plant 90 million acres of corn in 2018.

Chicago wheat futures ended higher on Thursday, taking support from weakness in the U.S. dollar.

The rain that fell in the U.S. Plains yesterday was very little, according to reports. Dryness in the region has been underpinning the market for the past few weeks.

Russian consulting firm IKAR pegged the country’s wheat exports at 37.5 million tonnes, which was nearly a million tonnes higher than the past report.

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