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Rabobank expects global wheat price to remain low, 24.08.17

RABOBANK has reduced its estimates for global wheat prices for well into next year by about 40 US cents a bushel, or about $18 a tonne.

The bank said a big global crop, helped by “exceptional Black Sea prospects”, should cap any price rallies and mute future volatility.

It has lowered the price outlook for wheat from now until September next year by 40 US cents a bushel from its previous forecast released a month ago.

Trading on the Chicago Board of Trade should range between 460 US cents a bushel and 480 US cents a bushel ($214/tonne-$224/tonne) until the next northern hemisphere wheat crop is harvested, the bank said in its latest Agri Commodities Markets Research report.

Rabobank said Russia was expected to produce a 78 million tonne wheat crop, the second consecutive record harvest.

The US Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released two weeks ago estimated the Russian wheat crop at 77.5 million tonnes, a 4.5-million-tonne rise on its July forecast.

IKAR, the Russian Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, lifted its estimate of the national wheat crop from 77-80 million tonnes to 79-82 million tonnes on Tuesday.

Rabobank said a big Russian crop “could drive a record 30 million-plus export program, limited only by infrastructure capacity”.

“Rabobank expects trade flows to be a huge indicator for price discovery, as the US holds heavy hard red winter stocks, the Black Sea harvests a second consecutive record crop and the European Union struggles with currency strength,” it said.

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