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GRAINS-Wheat drops 1.2 pct to two-month low on supply pressure

Reuters, 14.08.17

* Wheat falls for 3rd session, hits lowest since mid-June
* Corn near six-week low, soybeans fall on U.S. crop outlook

SINGAPORE, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures slid 1.2 percent on Monday, falling for a third consecutive session to a two-month low under pressure from abundant global supplies.

Corn dropped to match a six-week low reached on last Thursday while soybeans lost ground as the U.S. Department of Agriculture's forecast of larger-than-expected production this year dragged down prices.

The Chicago Board of Trade's most-active wheat contract lost 1.2 percent to $4.34 a bushel by 0256 GMT after declining earlier in the session to $4.32-1/2 a bushel, the lowest since June 12.

Corn gave up 1.1 percent to $3.70-3/4 a bushel, after falling to $3.70-1/4 a bushel, matching last Thursday's low which was the weakest since June 30. Soybeans dropped 0.9 percent to $9.36-1/2 a bushel.

"Chicago and Kansas both managed to almost complete the journey back to the bottom of their range for the past year," said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, referring to the wheat markets in Chicago and Kansas City.

"We expect U.S. wheat to start finding some support from exports at these lower price and U.S. dollar levels."

The wheat market is being weighed down by rising world supplies.

The USDA's supply outlook on Thursday included a sharp increase in projected global wheat stocks in 2017/18, supported by increased estimates for Russian, Ukrainian and Kazakh crops.

Leading Russian agriculture consultancies SovEcon and IKAR raised their estimates of Russia's 2017 wheat crop sharply to record highs on Friday on strengthening yields of the incoming crop.

SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia's 2017 wheat crop to 77.9 million tonnes from 72.9 million tonnes while IKAR lifted its estimate to what it called "a new incredible range" of 77 million to 80 million tonnes from a previous outlook of 74 million to 77 million.

For corn, the USDA on Thursday projected the U.S. corn yield at 169.5 bushels per acre (bpa), below its previous forecast of 170.7, but well above the average trade estimate of 166.2 bpa.

The agency also wrong-footed investors by increasing its soybeans yield forecast to 49.4 bpa from 48.0, rather than trimming it as expected.

Large speculators switched to a net short position in CBOT corn futures in the week to Aug. 8, regulatory data released on Friday showed.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitment of Traders report also showed that non-commercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, increased their net-short position in CBOT wheat and increased their net-short position in soybeans.

Grains prices at 0256 GMT

 Contract    Last    Change  Pct chg  Two-day chg  MA 30   RSI
 CBOT wheat  434.00  -5.25   -1.20%   -1.48%       492.44  20
 CBOT corn   370.75  -4.00   -1.07%   -0.07%       389.77  36
 CBOT soy    936.50  -8.50   -0.90%   -0.40%       993.05  29
 CBOT rice   12.49   -$0.01  -0.08%   +1.92%       $12.12  63
 WTI crude   48.74   -$0.08  -0.16%   +0.31%       $47.50  49
 Euro/dlr    $1.183  $0.001  +0.07%   +0.49%               
 USD/AUD     0.7907  0.002   +0.23%   +0.42%               

Most active contracts
Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight
RSI 14, exponential

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