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USDA Reports Crop Ratings Mostly Unchanged, 28.07.16

Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary forJuly 26, 2016.

Grain marketsare mixedas the US corn and soybean crops continue to be reported in good condition.Macro traders will take interest in this morning's consumer confidence report.

Crop conditionsout yesterday afternoon had corn rated at 76% good to excellent, unchanged from last week. Trade estimates were for a 1% decline to 75%. The crop was seen at 79% silking, and 13% doughing.

Soybean ratingswere noted at 71% GTE, also unchanged from last week. Like corn, analysts were expecting a 1% decrease. 76% of the crop was said to be blooming, while 35% is setting pods.

Wheat ratingscame in at 68% GTE, a drop of 1% vs. last week. Winter wheat was reported as 83% harvested.

Weather mapscontinue to receive the most attention from traders. Recent map updates slow a slight change of heat at the end of the extended maps with moderate rains throughout the corn belt.

Weekly export inspectionshad corn at 1,306,373 tonnes, soybeans at 700,715, and wheat at 549,894. The data is through 7/21/2016.

The French wheatcropis expected to be the lowest in 13 years according to Consultancy ODA Groupe. They estimate that the crop will be less than 30 million tonnes, down from their 35 million tonnes estimate July 5. Last year's crop was a record 41 million tonnes.

Russian agricultural consultancy, IKAR, estimates the grain harvest may be as high as 110 million tonnes, a new record over the 2008 harvest. They estimate that 34.7 million tonnes have already been harvested, and note higher than expected yields.

First noticedate in the August soybean contract is Friday July 29th.

Fundswere estimated sellers of 14,000 contracts of soybeans, 6,000 soymeal, and 5,000 soyoil in yesterday's trade. They were neutral in corn, and estimated buyers of 4,000 wheat.

Consumer Confidenceis due this morning at 9:00 AM CT. Average estimates are for a 96.0 reading. New home sales will also be out at 9:00.

National Cattle showlistnumbers were down 8,000 head vs. last week. Suggest a $2.00 to $3.00 higher cash trade this week, though most of that would already be factored in to futures after today's trade.

Limit-up settlementswere seen in the August, October and December contracts today. As a result, live cattle will trade with expanded limits of $4.50 tomorrow and feeder cattle will have $6.75 limits.

The “dog days of summer”are having an impact on meat consumption as consumers prefer lighter diets during this above normal temperature period and the historical travel season.

Dressed beefvalues were lower with choice down 1.50 and select down .13. The CME Feeder Index is 139.15. Pork cutout values were up.41.

Markets At-A-Glance – 5:10 AM

  • Sep Corn -1/2
  • Sep Beans +8
  • Sep Wheat -2 3/4
  • Sep Soymeal +2.40
  • Sep Soy oil +.32
  • Sep Dlr -.28
  • Sep S&P -1.90
  • Sep Crude -.38
  • Aug Gold+1.10

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