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Grain Market Volatility Continues, 26.07.16

Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary forJuly 22, 2016.

Grain marketsare loweras the end of another volatile week in the grain futures markets nears.

Drew Lernergave a great presentation yesterday during the wrap-up of our Summer Outlook Series. He does not see any majorpotential for a weather disaster this year, though notes there is potential for a reduction in soybean yields as the end of July and August could dry out. La Nina's emergence and impact was also a popular question for Drew.

You can still hear the recordings of our Grain and Livestock outlooks from this week's conference. Check them out,here.

NOAAreleased an updated long term forecast. For the month of August they see normal to above normal temperatures and normal to above normal precipitation.For the extended August - October forecast, they are calling forabove normal temps and normal to above normal precipitation.

Soybean auctionsin China overnight resulted in the sale of 332,039 tonnes of state reserve soybeans. A little over half of what was offered actually sold. The average sale price was $489.11 per tonne.

Weekly export salesyesterday had corn sales at851,410 metric tonnes (345,133 old crop + 506,277 new). That was under the 930,000 - 1,300,000 expectation. We have 407 million of unshipped old crop product right now. That is a record amount for this time. Last year it totaled 287 million.

Soybean export salesof 1,326,549 tonnes were also reported yesterday(324,977 old +1,001,572), over the 800,000 - 1,200,000 expected. Unshipped bushels as of July 14 total 262 million bushels, a new record for this week.

Wheat salescame inat 477,964 metric tonnes (all current 2016/17 crop). This was within the 350,000 - 550,000 expectation.

Argentina's trucker strikecontinues to slow grain movement into Rosario. A source speaking to Reuters yesterday said that only three trucks had entered Rosario in the first sevenhours yesterday. That compares with over 3,000 trucks in that same time period just the week before.

Russianfirm IKAR, upped its wheat crop forecast from 66 million tonnes to now 68 - a new all-time record!

Russia'sAgriculture Ministry estimates that the summer grain harvest so far is 16.2% complete at 7.7 million hectares, 31.4 million tonnes brought in. Last year at this time the harvest covered 6.3 million hectares.

Fundswere estimated to have been net sellers of 9,000 corn contracts yesterday. They were estimated buyers of 3,000 wheat and 2,000 soyoil. They were seen even in soybeans and soymeal.

Macro Marketswon't have any major economic reports to trade today. Instead traders will position for the Federal Reserve to meet next week. A rate hike is not expected at the meeting.

Cash hog pricesare mostly lower throughout the Midwest as packers have plenty of inventory for the weekdue to excess supplies in the area.

Cattle industry expansionis expected to stop according to Rich Nelson's livestock outlook on Wednesday. Rich noted that, "our general expectation is for cow/calf producers to finally stop expanding in 2017 and for the clean out pricing of this beef cycle to hit in 2018."

Cattle-On-Feedwill be released todayat 2:00 pm CT. Trade average estimates are: On Feed 101.6%, Placed 106.4%, and Marketed 109.5%.

Dressed beefvalues were lowerwith choice down .61 and select down 1.19. The CME Feeder Index is 140.23. Pork cutout values were down .65.

Markets At-A-Glance – 4:50 AM

  • Sep Corn -2
  • Sep Beans - 15 3/4
  • Sep Wheat -2
  • Sep Soymeal -5.00
  • Sep Soy oil -.33
  • Sep Dlr +.04
  • Sep S&P +6.20
  • Aug Crude -.09
  • Aug Gold-7.00

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