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Money Flow Macroeconomics and Weather Forecasts, 01.06.16

Grain marketsare mixed in post-holiday trade with soybeans concerned about demand and corn looking ahead to planting progress. The US Dollar, stock indices and crude are starting higher.

Market Impact of South America's Soybean Crop

Join us in our next webinar Tuesday, May 31st at 8:00 PM CDT for insight on the soybean situation in South America.

Allendale's Rich Nelson will have a chance to speak with USDA oilseed analyst Mark Ash for insight on the soybean crop in South America, and shed light on how it could impact markets in the US.

US corn plantingshould be virtually complete at 93% to 94% and soybean plantings should be near 70% complete on todays USDA report.

CFTC Commitment of Tradersreport had managed money funds adding 15,718 contracts to make the net long 64,696 corn positions. They were net sellers of 2,980 soybean contracts and 17,061 wheat contracts.

Fundswere estimated to have been net buyers on Friday of 10,000 corn contracts, 6,000 soybeans and 3,000 soyoil. They were net sellers of 4,000 soymeal and 1,000 wheat contracts.

NOAA updatestwo times per month, however, at the end of each month they go back and revise the previous outlook. Look for the update later today.

Chinawill auction wheat, rice and rapeseed oil from state reserves from May 31 to June 2.

Russiamay harvest 63.5 million tonnes of wheat in 2016, which is 1 million tonnes more than previously expected, IKAR, a leading agriculture consultancy in Moscow, said on Monday.

Brazil'sNo. 1 grain state, Mato Grosso, is expected to harvest 8 percent less corn than its April forecast says Imea the state's farm institute.

(Reuters) - Soybean and corn tradershave priced in risks from the impact of adverse weather on output in South America, and markets for the two could now face downward pressures, the chief executive of Rabobank Singapore said on Monday.

For more Daily Market Updates,followAllendale on Twitter!

The macro tradersthis week will be focusing on the global economies as China releases their official PMI, and Thursday the European Central Bank will release their meeting results. Friday has US employment numbers.

The U.S. Government Accountability Office(GAO) has accepted a request from the Senate Judiciary Committee to study, "what is known about the extent to which high-frequency trading in cattle futures contracts has contributed to price fluctuations." It also will look at how changes in cattle trading over the past decade may have affected price swings in recent years.

Managed moneyfunds were net sellers of 9,474 lean hog and 1,661 live cattle contracts last week.

Packerswill be buying for a full production week which could give the feedlots a bit of an upper hand. Early this week, trade will be waiting for a report on demand and clearance at retail counters over the weekend. First of month featuring and the cookout season in full swing could benefit beef.

Chart gapsstill remain above Friday’s high in live cattle however key moving averages should provide some resistance.

July lean hogsclosed .82 higher after a very volatile week. Resistance crosses at 81.70 and support comes in at 78.80 this week.

Dressed beefvalues were lower with choice down .65 and select down 1.69. The CME Feeder Index is 146.09. Pork cutout values are down .01.

Markets At-A-Glance – 5:10 AM

Jul Corn -2
Jul Beans +3 1/2
Jul Wheat -3 3/4
Jul Soymeal +.20
Jul Soy oil +.08
Jun Dlr +.15
Jun S&P +1.25
Jul Crude +.14
Jun Gold-1.90

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