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IKAR in Mass and Industry Media

Money Flow Overruns Hedge Selling, 30.05.16

Grain markets are higher on follow through buying prompted by new longs coming into the market. The US Dollar is slightly lower while crude oil and the stock indices are higher.

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The chart picturelooks strong for grains and oilseed markets as soybean meal leads the charge and is setting new contract highs overnight. Corn is testing the April high in the July futures contract while wheat struggles with moving average resistance levels.

Weekly Exportsales will be released at 7:30 am today. Trade estimate for 2015/16 corn is 1,000,000 to 1,300,000 mt, soybeans 300,000 to 500,000 mt, soymeal 50,000 to 100,000 mt, soyoil 10,000 to 40,000 mt and wheat 0 to 200,000 mt.

For the 2016/17 cropyear trade estimates are for corn 250,000 to 450,000 mt, soybeans 300,000 to 500,000 mt, soymeal 50,000 to 125,000 mt, soyoil 0 to 10,000 mt and wheat 300,000 to 500,000 mt.

Ethanol productionfell from 948,000 barrels per day to 946,000. That was a disappointment as seasonally production should be rising. However, we are still on target for USDA’s corn for ethanol goal. Production is 2.3% over last year. USDA’s goal is projecting a 1% increase in corn use, when adding in the improvement in efficiency of 1% to 1.5%, we are right on track.

Buenos Aires GrainsExchange has cut its harvest forecast to 56 million tonnes from 60 million. Other crop analysts have lowered their estimates to 52 million to 56.5 million tonnes.

IKAR,an agriculture consultancy in Moscow says Russia may harvest a grain crop of 107 million tonnes in 2016.

Chinawill auction a total of around 2.0 million tonnes of state owned corn on Friday. An industry analyst estimated the corn would be sold in a price range of 1,300-1,450 yuan ($198-$221) per tonne, based on the quality of the stored grain.

Fundswere estimated to have been net buyers on Wednesday of 12,000 corn contracts, 14,000 soybean, 9,000 soymeal, 2,000 soyoil and 1,000 wheat contracts.

Macro marketsare waiting for comments from Chairman Yellen who speaks on Friday at Harvard.

Live cattle futuresconsolidate as cash cattle trade this week at 125. Reports are of aggressive featuring of steaks by retailers for Memorial Day weekend. Demand for beef over the weekend will be important for traders intent to buy cattle next week. Production numbers reported by USDA on a daily basis is below trade expectation however Saturday production could be large.

Chart picturehas key resistance at this past Monday’s high and support at Tuesday’s low. Trade will be looking for change in managed money positions on Friday’s CFTC report.

Lean hog futuresare falling in line with seasonal trends, after the recent sell-off futures are rebounding due to firm cash trade.

Dressed beefvalues were mixed with choice up .30 and select down 1.74. The CME Feeder Index is 148.53. Pork cutout values are up 1.80.

Markets At-A-Glance – 5:10 AM

Jul Corn +1 3/4
Jul Beans +5 1/4
Jul Wheat +3 3/4
Jul Soymeal +7.80
Jul Soy oil +.37
Jun Dlr -.14
Jun S&P +.75
Jun Crude +.28
Jun Gold+3.20

Technical Chart of the Day

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