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IKAR in Mass and Industry Media


华联期货:季节消费淡季 郑糖调整为主

Finance.sina.com.cn, 04.02.16


要点:
  ■摩根士丹利小幅下调2015/16年度全球糖供应短缺预估至349万吨
  ■预计2015/16榨季我国食糖产量将继续大幅下降,预计只有910-950万吨,而需求量有望增加到1520万吨
  ■尽管去年下半年由于原糖大幅反弹致使我国进口成本增加,进口利润有所降低,但是目前绝对数额依然非常可观
  ■果葡糖浆替代白糖(5411, 22.00, 0.41%)比例增加,但替代逐步走向饱和
  ■预计2月份国内糖价仍将以调整为主,调整空间或相对有限,在广西本榨季制糖成本区5300元/吨一线会有较强的支撑。操作上建议原有中长线多单可以继续持有,场外投资者可在调整至5300附近或以下逐步介入

  

第一部分 行情回顾

  

2016年1月份白糖期货一路震荡走低,SR1605合约全月下跌278点或4.91%,月K线已经跌破5月线,中期调整趋势形成。预计2月份继续顺势下跌的概率较大。请参看图1。

  

图1:白糖期货SR1605合约月线图

数据来源:通达信 华联期货研究所

  

图2:广西糖网中国食糖指数图



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