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IKAR in Mass Media

Dryness takes toll on EU wheat, rapeseed hopes

02 июля 2015 года

The retreat in expectations for European Union wheat output was underlined as officials cut harvest expectations, and warned that further downgrades may be in the offing, amid a rash of cautions over dryness.

The European Commission's Mars agricultural meteorology unit, which last month flagged a "predominantly positive" outlook for the bloc's crops, reduced to 5.85 tonnes per hectare, from 5.93 tonnes per hectare, its forecast for the EU soft wheat yield.

The rapeseed yield was cut to 3.28 tonnes per hectare, from 3.42 tonnes per hectare, as Mars flagged "suboptimal weather conditions".

"Drought stress is starting to affect crop growth in many regions where dry weather with high temperatures have occurred.

"In western and central Europe a large belt of cropland is currently experiencing low soil moisture conditions which are limiting crop growth," the research unit said, adding that these conditions, "if prolonged, will further negatively affect winter crop grain filling".

'Moisture very low'

Indeed, in Germany - the EU's second-ranked wheat growing country, where the estimate for soft wheat yields was cut by 0.26 tonnes per hectare to 7.78 tonnes per hectare – "scarce rainfall over large parts… gives reason to worry.

"Soil moisture has reached very low values and without rain in the coming days a clear yield reduction of winter crops is unavoidable."

Only the very north and south of the country are seen escaping the dryness.

Meanwhile, in France, the EU's top wheat-producing country, while the "yield outlook remains higher than average", Mars cautioned that dryness had prompted a "slight decrease" in expectations.

"The yield outlook may drop further during the coming weeks if dry conditions persist."

'Rainfall too light'

The comments are the latest in a series of observations on EU crops which, while far from showing dismal prospects, show harvest expectations below those pencilled in after a benign winter and early spring.

Separately on Monday, analysis group Lanworth warned that early hopes for record yields of wheat and rapeseed in France had been dashed, with average yields now expected, and "possibly even lower for wheat following the recent dry weather in the north" of the country.

And MDA weather services said that recent rains in Germany and Poland "were too light to significantly ease dryness".

Although more moisture is headed for Northern Germany and Western Poland this week, MDA warned that "more rains will still likely be needed to end the dryness," and that moisture will "remain short" in northern France and western Germany.

Waning expectations

Meanwhile, Paris-based analysis group Agritel warned that "wheat is missing out rain on a northern part of France and yield will be affected in poor soil".

French officials on Friday rated the domestic wheat crop 85% in "good" or "excellent" condition, an elevated reading, but one down 2 points week on week.

Meanwhile, Rabobank cut by 1m tonnes to 148m tonnes its forecast for the EU soft wheat crop, which is the world's biggest, citing dryness in France and Germany.

Last week, the German DRV producers' group cut its forecast for domestic wheat production by 1.14m tonnes to 25.77m tonnes, with rapeseed production forecasts cut by 0.21m tonnes to 4.67m tonnes.

And influential analysis group Strategie Grains cut its EU soft wheat forecast by 1.0m tonnes to 141m tonnes, with the outlook for durum cut by 0.3m tonnes to 7.7m tonnes.

Russia caution

Monday's Mars report noted that Poland was suffering dryness in the west of the country, but added that "conditions are generally good," with wetter conditions in the east of the country.

The outlook in the UK, the EU's third-ranked wheat producer, was seen as "favourable" with yield forecasts broadly in line with last month's.

Mars also reopened the debate over grain crop prospects for Russia, which had been on a rising trend before a downgrade by analysis group Ikar last week.

Mars said that "high temperatures and scarce precipitation" had brought a "quick decrease of soil moisture levels in southern Russia.

"The unfavourable weather conditions negatively affected the biomass accumulation and yield formation of winter cereals.

"In case of continued drought, the yield expectation will decrease considerably."

Source: Agrimoney.com  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 103

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