IKAR in Mass Media

Russian wheat prices may rise further this week – analysts

02 июля 2015 года

Russian wheat export prices rose last week and may rise further this week, tracking an increase in global prices and influenced by wet weather in Russia’s southern regions which may damage wheat quality, analysts said.

Black Sea forward prices for Russia’s new-crop wheat with 12.5 percent protein content were at $192 per tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at the end of last week, up $2 on a week earlier, the IKAR agriculture consultancy said.

“This week started from sellers’ attempts to revisit prices upwards to the levels of $195 per tonne and higher,” said Dmitry Rylko, head of IKAR. “We do not know yet whether these attempts will be successful or not.” Chicago wheat futures jumped on Monday, on support from wet weather that has been delaying the harvest in key U.S. growing areas.

Russia’s grain harvest has also been delayed due to rainy weather in the southern regions. Farmers harvested 1.2 million tonnes of all grains, down from 1.7 million a year ago as of June 29. Yields were at 3.90 tonnes per hectare, up from 3.69 at the same date a year ago.

Russia’s wheat export tax, which the government will launch on July 1, may eventually lead to a decrease in the wheat sowing area for the 2016 crop and force the country to leave the global market for hard wheat, Interfax news agency reported, citing the head of Russia’s Grain Union, Arkady Zlochevsky.

The wheat export tax is set at 50 percent of the customs price per tonne minus 5,500 roubles, but not less than 50 roubles a tonne.

Russia’s 2014/15 grain exports are expected to reach a record 31.7 million tonnes, including 900,000 tonnes of supplies to Kazakhstan, Zlochevsky added. The current 2014/15 marketing year ends on June 30.

According to IKAR, Russia’s 2014/15 wheat exports will reach between 22.2 and 22.3 million tonnes, of which 22 million have already been exported.

Domestic prices for third-class wheat were up 125 roubles compared with a week earlier at 9,500 roubles ($171) per tonne in the European part of Russia on an ex-works basis, SovEcon said.

In the domestic sunflower seed market, SovEcon said prices were up 850 roubles to 22,600 roubles per tonne, while FOB Black Sea prices for crude sunflower oil were up $10 to $840-850 per tonne.

Source: Reuters | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 105

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