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Black Sea 2013/14 grain crop, exports to rebound

25 марта 2013 года

MOSCOW/KIEV, March 25 (Reuters) - The Black Sea region's top three grain producers - Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan - will see output and potential export volumes restored in the 2013/14 marketing year with improved weather conditions benefiting crops.

The three countries were hit by drought in 2012 which slashed their combined grain crop by one third to 130 million tonnes, sending prices to record highs.

Ukraine is seen as the main driver for growth in 2013/14, with some help from Kazakhstan. However, Russia's exportable surplus will be limited by low carryover stocks and plans to replenish strategic stocks.

During the 2013/14 marketing year their combined exportable surplus is expected to rise to at least 48 million tonnes from 44 million tonnes seen for 2012/13, early forecasts show.

The combined crop is expected to be 149 million tonnes in 2013, up 15 percent, Reuters calculations show.

Ukraine, a traditional producer of winter wheat, is likely to set a third successive annual record for grain export volumes in the 2013/14 season, with enough stocks to ship abroad 25-27 million tonnes of grain, analysts said.

UkrAgroConsult agriculture consultancy said that the former Soviet republic might export 27 million tonnes of grain, mostly maize (corn), next season if expectations for a record crop of more than 53 million tonnes materialise.

The consultancy forecast the export of 21.5 million tonnes in 2012/13.

ProAgro consultancy expects exports of about 25 million tonnes next season, saying Ukraine might harvest at least 52 million tonnes of grain this year.

"The improved condition of Ukrainian winter grain crops this year is the main reason for expecting a jump in grain harvest and exports," said Mykola Vernytsky from ProAgro.

Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry data show 67.2 percent of winter grain crops were in good condition as of mid-March and only 300,000 to 500,000 hectares of crops were damaged by frost and could be reseeded this spring.

The ministry has said Ukraine was likely to harvest no less than 50 million tonnes of grain, including 19 million tonnes of wheat, in 2013.

SPRING SOWING UNDER WAY

In Russia, relatively good weather forecasts for spring and good winter grain crop conditions have allowed the country's government to keep its 2013 harvest target at 95 million tonnes.

"We are entering spring in a very good position, according to weather forecasts," Agriculture Minister Nikolai Fyodorov said on Friday. He kept the 2013/14 exportable surplus forecast unchanged at 20 million tonnes of grain, up from this year's 15 million tonnes.

Meanwhile, SovEcon agriculture analysts see Russia's 2013/14 exportable surplus of grain at 16 million tonnes and the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) pegged it at 20 million.

Their 2013 grain crop forecast stood at 83-89 million tonnes and 90-92 million tonnes, respectively.

Russia has already started the spring sowing campaign in its main exporting regions, and 0.6 percent of the planned spring area sown to date.

The country's winter grain plantings are in better condition than the multi-year average, forecasters said.

Crops in a poor state stood at 8-10 percent or at 1.3-1.6 million hectares, down from last year's 1.9 million hectares, the head of state forecaster Rosgidromet Alexandr Frolov was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying on Friday.

The forecaster does not expect drought conditions during the second half of April and May in the key grain growing regions, despite some concerns for Volga region where the weather is likely to be dry and temperatures are expected to be relatively high.

DAMP IN KAZAKHSTAN

Kazakhstan also has a good chance of increasing its 2013/14 grain exportable surplus from this year's 7 million tonnes due to an expected increase in its grain crop which will offset a fall in carryover stocks, Evgeniy Gan, president of League of Kazakhstan grain processors, said.

Gan expects carryover stocks to decline to about 3 million tonnes of grain by July 1 from 6.4 million tonnes seen a year ago, while the grain crop is expected to rise above the average level of 14-15 million tonnes seen in recent years.

"Moisture retention is very good this year, we have not seen it on this level for a long time," Gan said. "Based on this factor, the harvest is expected to be higher than an average level."

Kazakhstan, the Black Sea region's top producer of hard wheat, starts spring grain sowing in the middle of May, so weather in late July and early August will be a key factor for the harvest, the head of the lobby said.

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 42

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