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IKAR in Mass Media

Russian grain price fall continues with modest export

08 апреля 2013 года

MOSCOW, April 8 (Reuters) - Russian grain prices continued to fall, supporting modest export activity, amid expectations of a relatively good harvest after last year's drought, analysts said on Monday.

Russia was hit by a drought last year that slashed its grain crop by one-quarter to 71 million tonnes and quickly depleted the exportable surplus. The official 2012/13 grain export forecast stands at 14.8 million tonnes, down from 27 million tonnes a season earlier.

The drought also sent domestic grain prices to record highs last year, but wheat prices have been falling since early February, helped by sales from government grain stocks.

"We expect the downtrend to continue, taking into account continuing sales from the government stocks and generally not bad expectations for the new harvest and low prices for the new crop," SovEcon agriculture analysts said in a note.

Russia's Agriculture ministry has narrowed the range for its 2013 grain crop forecast to between 90 million and 92 million tonnes last week from between 90 million and 95 million tonnes.

Prices for the new crop milling wheat are currently quoted at $265-270 per tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis, SovEcon said.

As to the current harvest, Russian prices for wheat with 12.5 percent protein content fell to $280 per tonne last week from $290 per tonne on a free-on-board (FOB) basis in the Azov Sea, according to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR).

SovEcon quoted milling wheat prices at 8,300-8,800 roubles ($260-$280) per tonne in shallow-water ports on a carriage-paid to (CPT) basis last week. Maize (corn) prices were seen flat at 8,300-8,600 roubles per tonne.

Chicago wheat climbed more than one percent to its highest in almost two weeks on Monday, rising for a second consecutive session as Chinese buying and concerns about the U.S. crop underpinned the market.

Chicago Board of Trade May wheat rose 0.7 percent to $7.04 a bushel by 0856 GMT, while May milling wheat on the Paris futures market was up 1.33 percent at 247.00 euros ($320) a tonne.

MODEST EXPORT AND IMPORT

From the July 1 start of the 2012/13 marketing season through the early April, Russia's grain exports have exceeded 14.8 million tonnes, including 10.30 million tonnes of wheat, IKAR said.

The country has also already exported a record amount of rice - 290,000 tonnes in paddy equivalent - after last year's good harvest. It exported 281,000 tonnes of paddy rice during the entire previous season.

To cover domestic demand before the new crop arrives this summer, Russia has imported more than 1.1 million tonnes of grain and flour since the start of this marketing year, mainly wheat and flour from Kazakhstan and Belarus, with which it has a customs union.

Russia also usually imports some malting barley and white rice from non-Customs union countries, since the start of the season these imports reached 430,000 tonnes of grain, according to IKAR.

Russia has sold about 2.66 million tonnes of grain from its stocks since the start of 2012/13 season on July 1. It plans to sell an additional 1.8 million tonnes by the end of the season, slashing its stocks to about 300,000 tonnes.

In European Russia, the average domestic EXW (ex-silo) price for milling wheat declined by 200 roubles to 10,150 roubles per tonne last week. Feed wheat also lost 200 roubles and was seen at 9,825 roubles per tonne, SovEcon added in a note.

Barley prices fell by 75 roubles to 8,450 roubles per tonne, while maize prices were down 50 roubles at 8,500 roubles per tonne, according to SovEcon.

As to oilseeds, domestic prices for sunflower seeds were down 175 roubles at 15,900 roubles per tonne, Sovecon said. IKAR pegged it at 16,045 roubles per tonne, down 90 roubles.

Export prices for crude sunflower oil were stable at $1,110 a tonne on a free-on-board basis, SovEcon added, while IKAR quoted domestic crude sunoil price flat at 33,690 roubles per tonne, up 160 roubles.

Russia's domestic sugar prices rose by 1,000 roubles to 23,300 roubles per tonne or to $735 per tonne, up $16, IKAR added.

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 50

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