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IKAR in Mass Media

Russia's Wheat Exports Seen Climbing 9% as Government Stocks Up

21 марта 2013 года

March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Russia, the fifth-biggest wheat exporter, will boost shipments 9 percent in the 12 months ending in June 2014, lagging behind an increase in production as the government buys grains to boost reserves.

Exports will be 11.45 million metric tons, compared with 10.5 million tons this year and a record 21.6 million tons two years ago, according to the median of 10 analyst and trader estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Output will jump 27 percent to 48 million tons, the most in two years, from 37.7 million tons in 2012-13, the survey showed.

Russia sold stockpiles after drought caused the wheat crop to shrink 33 percent this year. Grain stockpiles held by the government were 2.4 million tons yesterday, down from about 5 million tons when government sales began Oct. 23.

"The state will compete with exporters for wheat while replenishing stocks next season," said Oleg Sukhanov, an analyst at the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies in Moscow, or Ikar. The 2013-14 season starts July 1.

Domestic wheat prices climbed to a record this season while futures on the Chicago Board of Trade, a global benchmark, are about 45 percent below the all-time high in 2008. Global wheat production has climbed 7 percent since then to 655.5 million tons while exports advanced 14 percent, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Government Purchases

Agriculture Minister Nikolai Fedorov said on March 15 the government may buy about 5 million tons of grains from farmers to replenish state stockpiles in 2013-14. That would be the biggest purchase since 2008-09, according to National Mercantile Exchange data.

Russia will have about 300,000 tons of grains in reserves by the end of June, according to government estimates. That is enough to meet domestic demand for about a week, said Alexander Korbut, vice president of the Russian Grain Union, which represents more than 900 grain producers in the nation.

The government has said it may remove a duty on imported grain as domestic prices have climbed. Fourth-grade milling wheat, the most popular wheat export, was 11,100 rubles ($360) a ton in central Russia last week, according to Grain Union data. Chicago futures are $7.36 a bushel ($270 a ton).

The grain crop including corn will be as much as 92 million tons in 2013-14, up from 70.9 million tons a year earlier, according to Ikar. SovEcon, another Moscow researcher, puts the new crop at as much as 89 million tons.

Global wheat output will climb 4.3 percent to 690 million tons, about 10 million tons short of the all-time high two years ago, the United Nations estimated this month. Russia would remain the fifth-largest exporter next season. The U.S. is set to be the biggest exporter, at 25.9 million tons, followed by Australia at 20.8 million tons, Canada at 18.8 million tons, and the 27-nation European Union at 16.5 million tons, according to forecasts from all four governments.

Source: Bloomberg  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 63

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