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Russia 2012 wheat crop to lag official f'cast -analysts

01 ноября 2012 года

MOSCOW, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Russia's 2012 wheat crop will lag official estimates by 6 percent and reach just over 37 million tonnes after hot and dry weather damaged this year's harvest, analysts said on Thursday, compared to last year's outcome of 56.2 million tonnes.

Agricultural analyst SovEcon cut its forecast for Russia's 2012 wheat crop to 37.5 million tonnes by clean weight from a previous 38 million tonnes to reflect weak harvest data.

The Black Sea region countries - Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan - which normally produce about 10 percent of the world's wheat - were hit by a drought this year, which slashed their grain harvest by a third.

"The grain harvest will be smaller than officially expected," chief executive of SovEcon Andrei Sizov told Reuters.

Russia's Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) also cut its wheat harvest forecast to 37.1-37.6 million tonnes from 40 million tonnes, its head Dmitry Rylko said.

The Russian Agriculture Ministry expects overall grain harvest at 71.7 million tonnes, including 40 million tonnes of wheat. This is below the 2010 level of 41.5 million tonnes of wheat, when Russia slapped a year-long ban on grain exports after a severe drought destroyed a third of its crops.

Traders have speculated for months that Russia could restrict grain exports this year but its officials have said they would oppose any ban.

SovEcon pegged the grain harvest forecast at 69 million tonnes, down from the previously expected 70.5 million tonnes, while IKAR cut its forecast to 69-70 million tonnes from the previously expected 70.5 million tonnes.

SovEcon also expects Russia to harvest 13.5 million tonnes of barley by clean weight, Sizov added.

EXPORT AND HARVEST DATA

Analysts' estimates concur that Russia's 2012/13 grain exports have already exceeded the official estimate of 10 million tonnes for this year's exportable grain surplus. The current 2012/13 marketing year started on July 1.

Russia's 2012/13 grain exports will reach around 12 million tonnes by the end of November, according to Sovecon and IKAR.

IKAR expects Russia to export 1.2-1.3 million tonnes of grain this month, while according to SovEcon, the country will ship abroad 1.2-1.5 million tonnes. In October grain exports are seen at 2.4-2.5 million tonnes.

The world's top wheat importer, Egypt's state wheat buying agency GASC bought 120,000 tonnes of Russian wheat for Dec. 21-31 shipment on Wednesday, but traders said that Russia and Ukraine are now fading from the export markets.

The head of the Grain Producers' Union, Pavel Skurikhin, expects Russia to export up to 1.5 million tonnes of grain in November, he said in emailed comments.

He also expects Russia to boost 2012/13 grain imports to 2 million tonnes from last year's 800,000 tonnes, which is in line with other analysts estimates that suggested Russia's wheat imports would double this year.

In good harvest years, such as 2011/12, Russia imports about 1 million tonnes of grains a year, mainly wheat from Kazakhstan to its border regions in the Urals and Siberia, as well as some top quality milling wheat that Russia cannot supply.

As to harvest campaign, Russia reaped 39.6 million tonnes of wheat by bunker weight by Oct. 26 with the harvest 99 percent complete, representing a 33 percent decline from the previous year. Yields were down to 1.85 tonne per hectare from 2.38 tonnes in the previous season.

The country had completed 98 percent of its grain harvest as of Oct. 26, reaping 72 million tonnes of grain, including 14.5 million tonnes of barley and 5.66 million tonnes of maize (corn), the Agriculture Ministry's data showed on Thursday.

Grain yields fell by 18.6 percent to 1.88 tonnes per hectare so far, the ministry data obtained by Reuters showed.

Russia also harvested 31.7 million tonnes of sugar beet from 73 percent of sown area. Yields were down to 38.18 tonnes per hectare from last year's 38.33.

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 47

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