• IKAR in Mass Media

 

 → IKAR in Mass Media → #534

IKAR in Mass Media

Russian Wheat Reserves Seen by Ikar Smaller Than in 2010 Drought

12 сентября 2012 года

Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Russia, the world's third-biggest wheat exporter last season, has smaller reserves of the grain than in 2010, the year of the country's worst drought in at least half a century, according to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies.

Russia's stockpiles of all grains were 10 million metric tons less than in 2010 as of Aug. 1, and lower than at the equivalent point in each of the past five years, according to Oleg Sukhanov, head of analytics at the Moscow-based institute, also known as Ikar. Wheat stockpiles were 15 to 17 percent down on 2010, he said today by phone, without providing tonnage figures.

"That August and September grain prices are at historical maximums at this time of the year is the evidence that Russia has little grain," Sukhanov said yesterday in a statement on Ikar's website.

Dry weather from the U.S. to Russia to Australia cut official estimates of crops among major grain exporters this season, driving up prices. Russia's Agriculture Ministry reduced its wheat crop forecast to 40 million tons on Sept. 6, about 29 percent less than in 2011-12 when the country harvested 56.2 million tons. Still, Russia won't impose a ban on grain shipments this year, as it did in 2010, Agriculture Minister Nikolai Fedorovsaid Sept. 6.

Grain resources held by agricultural, procurement and milling companies, including state stockpiles, were 27.7 million tons as of Aug. 1, according to state statistics office data, down from 32.5 million tons a year earlier. The figures don't include grain in the possession of small farms and private households. Wheat reserves in procurement and milling companies were 9.4 million tons, down from about 11 million tons a year earlier, the state data show.

Black Earth

Third-grade and fourth-grain milling wheat prices reached about 8,000 rubles ($254) a ton and feed wheat prices approached 7,500 rubles a ton in Russia's Black Earth regions in the week ended Sept. 7, according to Ikar data. The grades were below 5,000 rubles a ton a year earlier and about 4,000 rubles a ton in 2010, according to Ikar.

Ikar forecasts grain production at 69 million to 72 million tons for 2012-13 and domestic consumption at 66 million to 67 million tons, Sukhanov said.

Dmitry Rylko, Ikar's director, said on Sept. 6 the country's grain exports will be below 10 million tons this season. Russia had exported about 5.4 million tons by Sept. 5, according to Federal Customs Service data.

Wheat exports may drop to 8 million tons in 2012-13 from 21.6 million tons in the previous period because of drought, estimates of the U.S. Department of Agriculture show. That would rank the country fifth among shippers of the grain after the U.S., Australia, Canada and the European Union.

Wheat for December delivery rose 0.3 percent to $8.8625 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade by 9:24 a.m. London time. Prices are up 36 percent this year.

Source: Bloomberg  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 55

There are no comments yet. Be the first!

Only authorized users can comment.