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IKAR in Mass Media

Russia wheat export prices called higher on Egypt deal

27 августа 2012 года

MOSCOW, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Russia's wheat export prices could rise further after winning new business from Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, adding pressure on to an already tight exportable surplus after damage to the crop from drought, grain analysts said on Monday.

Egypt's General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) agreed to buy 60,000 tonnes of Russian wheat from Olam International at $319 per tonne with freight costs of $11.64 per tonne and 60,000 tonnes from Aston at $320.94 per tonne with freight costs of $11.70.

"Russian origin remains most competitive in comparison with any other sources," Dmitry Rylko, the head of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), said in a note.

It was GASC's third international wheat purchase since the July 1 start of the 2012/13 fiscal year. The purchase was also GASC's third in two weeks as the world's top wheat importing nation moved to secure supplies on growing concern about weather-shortened crops in key exporting nations including Russia and Australia.

Russia's government cut its 2012 grain crop forecast to 75 million tonnes and has tried to reassure markets there will be no repeat of August 2010, when it shocked markets with a snap decision to ban grain exports when the scale of losses from major drought became clear.

This year, the government has indicated that protective tariffs could be an option, though only after the end of the calendar year.

But traders and analysts widely expect limits to be imposed in some form, perhaps as early as November, after heavy exports in the early months of the season showed Russia could exhaust the 10-12 million tonne exportable surplus sooner than Jan. 1.

"Egypt entered the market after last week's (global) price correction and, perhaps, after it made sure that Russia's export restrictions would not be imposed in the nearest future," SovEcon agriculture analysts said in a note.

Egypt bought Russian wheat for Oct. 1-10 shipment on a free on board (FOB) basis.

On last week's Russia's wheat prices, IKAR estimated FOB level for 12.5-percent wheat at $314 per tonne, up from $310 per tonne, while the price for the new corn (maize) was quoted at $295-300 per tonne.

SovEcon said Black Sea FOB wheat prices were unchanged at $310-315 per tonne last week, while corn prices in North Caucasus were quoted at 8,000-9,000 roubles ($250-280) per tonne.

U.S. new-crop wheat tracked corn, climbing 0.68 percent to $8.14 a bushel on Monday by 0824 GMT.

The average Russian prices for fourth-grade milling wheat in deep-water ports were stable last week at 9,600-9,800 roubles per tonne on a carriage-paid-to (CPT) basis, while prices in shallow-water ports reached 8,800-9,000 roubles per tonne, up 100 roubles, according to SovEcon.

Russia's average domestic EXW (ex-silo) prices for third-grade milling wheat were unchanged at 8,300 roubles ($260) per tonne, while the fourth-grade prices were unchanged at 8,275 roubles per tonne, SovEcon added.

Price growth in drought-damaged Urals and Siberia slowed down last week as prices reached overheated levels, SovEcon added. Wheat prices there rose by 100 roubles per tonne last week.

For sunseeds, the price index for the new harvest was quoted at 15,500-16,000 roubles per tonne, IKAR said. SovEcon quoted it in a range of 14,000-15,500 roubles per tonne on CPT basis. Rapeseed prices strengthened further to 15,000-15,500 roubles per tonne from 15,000 roubles, according to IKAR.

Domestic crude sunoil prices rose 500 roubles to 43,250 roubles per tonne, while the Black Sea export prices were quoted at $1,200 per tonne, SovEcon added.

($1 = 31.8500 Russian roubles)

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 69

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