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Russia sees no need for grain export tariffs in 2012

08 августа 2012 года

MOSCOW, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said on Wednesday that Russia had no grounds to ban grain exports but did not rule out protective export tariffs after the end of the 2012 calendar year.

Dvorkovich said Russia's new crop and stocks would provide enough grain to cover domestic requirements. He also reiterated the government's forecasts of 75-80 million tonnes of grain, with an exportable surplus of 10-12 million tonnes.

"There are no grounds to ban exports. Tariffs are always possible for any commodity. In this calendar year I do not see any scenario under which this could happen. Could it happen next year? I don't know," Dvorkovich told reporters after a closed door meeting of the government's food security commission.

The news helped ease concerns about a further shrinking of global wheat exportable stocks, a bearish factor for wheat futures prices that already were pressured by profit-taking after strong gains in June and July on U.S. and Black Sea drought.

Traders said Russia's imminent accession to the WTO meant it was unlikely to slap an abrupt ban on exports as it did after 2010's catastrophic drought, the worst in decades.

"They are about to join the World Trade Organisation so they are not going to take anti-liberal measures," a French futures broker said of Russia's grain export policy. "Reading between the lines, they are telling us that when they will have reached their export target they'll be out of the market."

Dvorkovich's opinion echoes comments from the heads of the Black Sea region's national grain lobbies, who said on Wednesday that Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan do not need any limits on grain exports this year to ensure that domestic markets are well supplied, despite weak harvest prospects.

Wheat production from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, the Black Sea region, which normally supplies around a quarter of world wheat export volumes, will drop 30 percent from last year because of a drought, a Reuters poll found, fanning fears of a global food price scare.

The World Bank said in July it was ready to help governments respond to a broad run-up in grain prices, which has put the world's poorest people at risk and could have a lingering detrimental impact for years.

TARIFFS POSSIBLE

Once Russia's exportable surplus is exhausted, Dvorkovich said, the government would base its actions on market conditions.

Global grain prices rose sharply this summer as expectations for a record-breaking U.S. corn crop were dashed by the worst U.S. drought in over 50 years. Prices were also supported by the weak harvest prospects from the Black Sea region and by concerns over unfavorable weather in India and Australia.

U.S. corn and wheat prices at near $8 a bushel and $8.7 a bushel respectively are up about 45 percent since mid-June, back from highs a couple of weeks ago and reviving memories of the global food price scare of 2007-2008.

Agriculture Minister Nikolai Fyodorov confirmed on Wednesday that Russia would harvest 45 million tonnes of wheat this year, down from last year's 56-million tonnes.

According to a Reuters poll, poorer crops from Ukraine and Kazakhstan are also expected this year, with the median responses pegging their wheat crops at 13 million tonnes and 12 million tonnes respectively. This compares with production of some 22 million tonnes for each of these countries last year.

As this summer's drought has spread, Russian crop forecasts have been cut repeatedly, sharpening parallels with the 2010 season, which triggered the shock export ban.

Last week Dvorkovich indicated that at current forecasts of 75-80 million tonnes, Russia's exportable surplus could be 10-12 million tonnes.

Some market participants saw this exportable surplus estimate as a direct signal to the market that 10-12 million tonnes is all it can export without tripping export limits or tariffs.

In July Russia exported 2.1 million tonnes of grain, of which wheat accounted for 1.8 million tonnes, and exports are expected to increase in August, according to analyst data.

In August it is expected to export 3.5 million tonnes of grain, according to the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR). Russia's SovEcon consultancy said last week it expected Russia to export 2.5 million tonnes of grain in August.

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 47

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