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IKAR in Mass Media

Russian export grain prices hit new highs - analyst

16 июля 2012 года

KRASNODAR, Russia, July 16 (Reuters) - Prices for Russian export grain hit new highs last week and importers were delaying purchases even though a persistent drought in the U.S. farm belt suggested little respite for consumers, Russian analysts said.

Dmitry Rylko, head of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), said wheat with 12.5 percent protein content was quoted at $305 in Russia's main deepwater ports - a record high.

The previous week, July wheat was quoted up to $285 and August wheat was quoted at $295. Deepwater feed barley prices exceeded $300 per tonne late last week.

The SovEcon consultancy said that by the end of last week prices for fourth grade milling wheat in deepwater ports were about 9,200-9,400 roubles versus 8,600-8,800 roubles at the end of the previous week carriage paid to port.

Prices inland rose 375 roubles ($11.50) per tonne to an average offer price of 8,125 roubles per tonne ex-works in European Russia, SovEcon said.

Fifth grade feed wheat rose by 450 roubles per tonne to 7,600 roubles, while feed barley rose by 300 roubles to 6,750 roubles.

IKAR said high prices slowed exports at the start of the new season compared to the fast start to last year, when Russia exported a record 28 million tonnes of grain after the end of a 10-month export ban.

Preliminary figures for the first week of July showed Russia exported 275,000 metric tonnes of grains, including 225,000 tonnes of wheat, IKAR said.

A year earlier Russia exported 340,000 tonnes of grain, including 335,000 of wheat.

Fresh gains came despite expectations that prices could decline after deadly flash flooding on Russia's southern coast, which resulted in rail and road transport disruptions.

The deputy director of Novorossiisk Grain Terminal said on Thursday last week that loadings were proceeding as normal despite a three-day halt to grain intake.

Rail traffic to the port resumed on Thursday, and there was heavy traffic of grain lorries on Sunday night on the road from the provincial capital of Krasnodar to Novorossiisk.

The rally in Russia is likely to be sustained by gains in world grain prices. Monday could bring fresh evidence that the U.S. corn and soybean crops are continuing to wilt in an unrelenting drought across the Midwest, which could sustain the blistering rally in grains futures.

A lack of meaningful rain in areas hardest hit by the worst drought in nearly 25 years is progressively shrinking the crops in the world's top corn and soybean exporter.

Russia has suffered its own weather problems this year, though a drought has shifted from the key export producers of the Black Sea to the Volga and Siberia.

The head of Russia's Grains Union said last week that the major milling centre of Siberia, the Altai region, would suffer a shortage of grain this year.

IKAR and SovEcon said importers were still hoping for prices to fall.

"It is likely that major importers of Russian grain, who are currently deferring purchases, will have to get used to sticker shock at $300 per tonne at the beginning of the season," SovEcon said.

Sunseed prices continued to creep down. Average prices for the week weakened by 450 roubles to 13,525 roubles per tonne as crusher prices declined, SovEcon said.

The price of crude sunoil climbed by 50 roubles per tonne to 37,500 roubles, supported by a seasonal reduction in supply as producers in Russia's south have yet to start the sunseed harvest.

SovEcon said export prices for crude sunoil rose slightly, with offers heard in the neighbourhood of $1,120 after $1,100 a week earlier FOB Black Sea.

White sugar prices in southern Russia were unchanged in roubles at 26,000 roubles per tonne, and slightly lower in dollars, down to $795 from $800 per tonne, IKAR said, noting potential for growth when sugar mills start processing in two to three weeks. ($1 = 32.6172 Russian roubles)

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 92

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