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IKAR in Mass Media

Russia's grain exports seen gathering pace-analysts

23 июля 2012 года

MOSCOW, July 23 (Reuters) - The pace of Russia's grain exports is rising after a slow start to the 2012/13 season, despite record wheat prices which hit new highs last week and may rise further this week, Russian analysts said.

Wheat with 12.5 percent protein content was quoted at $310 per tonne in Russia's main deep-water ports last week -- a new record high, Dmitry Rylko, head of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), told Reuters on Monday.

That compares to $305 per tonne the previous week. Barley feed prices in deep-water ports were stable at $300 per tonne last week.

High prices were not able to slow down purchases significantly. Russia's grain exports reached 700,000 tonnes from the start of the new marketing season in July to date, up from 275,000 tonnes on July 1-8, Rylko said.

The SovEcon consultancy saw prices for fourth grade milling wheat in deep-water ports stable last week at 9,200-9,400 roubles ($290) per tonne on a carriage-paid-to (CPT) basis.

But stable prices in Russia's South can be a temporary trend as its export prices will be supported by weak corn (maize) prospects in the U.S., SovEcon said in a note.

A lack of meaningful rain in areas hardest hit by the worst drought in nearly 25 years is progressively shrinking the crops in the U.S., the world's top corn and soybean exporter.

U.S. wheat prices have already increased more than 50 percent since the middle of June and are expected to peak at $10.01 a bushel in late August, according to a Reuters poll of crop analysts.

Russia has suffered its own drought this year, which has recently shifted from the Black Sea region -- the key producer of export wheat -- to Siberia.

"During the last 10 days there has been a drought in the territory from Orenburg to the northern districts of Krasnoyarsk," Rylko said.

High temperatures forced Rylko to cut his forecast for Russia's 2012 grain harvest to less than 80 million tonnes, of which wheat may amount to less than 45 million tonnes.

Persistently high temperatures are expected in parts of Russia's Volga and Siberia federal districts, which include territory from Orenburg to Krasnoyarsk, the State Hydrometeorology Agency said on its website in a weather forecast for July 23-26.

Meanwhile, Russia's wheat prices in shallow-water ports rose to 8,500-8,600 roubles per tonne last week from 8,200-8,500 roubles, while prices inland rose 125 roubles per tonne to an average offer price of 8,250 roubles per tonne ex-works in E uropean Russia, SovEcon said.

Fifth grade feed wheat rose by 50 roubles per tonne to 7,650 roubles, while feed barley rose by 350 roubles to 7,100 roubles.

For sunseeds, average prices were flat at 13,525 roubles per tonne last week, SovEcon said, while the price of crude sunoil climbed by 325 roubles per tonne to 37,825 roubles, supported by a seasonal reduction in supply as producers in Russia's south have yet to start the sunseed harvest.

SovEcon said export prices for crude sunoil rose slightly, with offers heard in the neighbourhood of $1,150 after $1,120 a week earlier free-on-board (FOB) at the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk.

White sugar prices in southern Russia were almost unchanged in rouble terms at 25,900 roubles per tonne and slightly higher in dollars at $807, up from $795, IKAR said.

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 70

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