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IKAR in Mass Media

Russia sees strong 2012/13 wheat crop, exports off

02 марта 2012 года

BELOKURIKHA, Russia, March 2 (Reuters) - Russia is expecting another big wheat harvest in the coming crop year but it is unlikely to match this year's record grain exports, partly because of a big decline in wheat stocks, a deputy agriculture minister and analysts said on Friday.

Russia could harvest 57 million tonnes of wheat in the 2012/13 crop year, up from 56.2 million tonnes during the current crop year, Deputy Agriculture Minister Sergei Sukhov told Reuters on Friday at a conference in Siberia.

However, Russia's Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) noted that the high volume of exports since the government lifted its ban on July 1 last year has depressed inventory levels.

"The record level of grain exports has resulted in a very rapid draw down of inventories in the last few months," IKAR's general director Dmitri Rylko said at the conference.

The institute said that it expects wheat stocks at the close of the 2011-2012 season of 11.2 million tonnes, down from 12.9 million tonnes at the start.

Russia was the world's third largest wheat exporter before the government imposed an export ban to hold down domestic prices after 2010's severe drought.

The deputy agriculture minister said next season's wheat exports are likely to decline to 20 million tonnes from 21 million tonnes this year.

Total grain exports are seen falling to 25 million tonnes in 2012/13 from 28 million tonnes in 2011/12, Sukhov said earlier on Friday.

Thus far, Russia has exported 20.6 million tonnes of grain since the start of the 2011/12 year, and March shipments are expected to reach 1.5 million to 2.0 million tonnes.

Rylko added that out of the total, 16.9 million tonnes was wheat and 2.5 million tonnes was barley.

WINTER GRAINS

Russia remains optimistic about the quality of this year's winter grain crop despite a recent spell of extremely cold temperatures and negative news from neighbouring Ukraine, where the cold and poor snow cover are expected to cut winter crops by 42-58 percent.

Rylko said that winter crops were not in bad shape overall, but that many questions remain before the thaw.

"It is not possible to provide a distinct overall picture now...the situation with winter wheat is less understood, in a few weeks it will be possible to discuss this topic seriously," he said, adding that a large amount of the winter rape seed crop had died and that some winter barley was also damaged.

On Thursday, Russia's Gidromet state forecaster said it expects 6-8 percent of the winter grain crop to be in poor condition, below the 2007-2011 average of 8.9 percent, according to SovEcon analysts.

The data indicates Russia could harvest another strong crop later this year, as Gidromet estimates that 92-94 percent of the crop is in good or satisfactory condition.

Source: Reuters  |  #grain #Belokurikha   |  Comments: 0   Views: 41

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