IKAR in Mass Media

Russia grain export from reserves seen 0.5-1 mln T

04 апреля 2012 года

MOSCOW, April 4 (Reuters) - Russia may export between 0.5 million and 1 million tonnes of grain from state inventories over an unspecified period of time, and wheat will account for over half, according to a government source, two traders and two analysts.

State intervention sales, which started on Wednesday, are envisaged at 2 million tonnes of grain from the Agriculture Ministry's 7 million tonnes of reserves.

Russia's state grain export potential will be limited by Moscow's decision to sell grains from the 2005, 2008 and 2009 crops. Egypt, the world's biggest wheat importer, tends to buy from the current year harvest, two grain traders said.

The government source said 0.7 to 1 million tonnes of state grain could be exported.

One of traders said the volume of exports would be 0.5-0.6 million tonnes and would mainly be wheat.

"Grain will be sold primarily on the domestic market. Exporters are allowed to take part in tenders, but given the time required for logistics, we are speaking of June shipments, after which we will have a new crop," he added.

Another trader said grain exporters would be able to participate in tenders two or three weeks after flour millers.

Russia will not be able to sell all planned 2 million tonnes of grain, the second trader said, estimating that the maximum volume would not exceed 1.3 million to 1.5 million tonnes of grain for the period from April to June.

Andrei Sizov Jr., managing director at the SovEcon consultancy, said he expected wheat to account for more than half of sales of 2 million tonnes of grain.

He said the pace of exports will depend on the region and the quality of grain. Russia plans to sell grain mainly in the south, north-west and North Caucasus.

"Russian state stocks in the country's south stay at about 1.5 million tonnes of grain. Sales in the south will support export volumes if the grain is competitive and sold at a significant pace," Sizov added.

He said he was afraid grain in the south of Russia could be damaged by insects, which would limit its export potential.

Russia's Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) estimated that up to 1 million tonnes of grain could be exported during state interventions, of which milling wheat could account for up to 900,000 tonnes.

"But really, it is a theoretical maximum. In reality, we think there will be much less. A lot depends on the rate of auction sales, documentation transfer and logistics," IKAR's general director, Dmitri Rylko, told Reuters.

Source: Reuters | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 43

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