IKAR in Mass Media

Russia wheat down, barley up, analysts say

30 августа 2011 года

MOSCOW, July 18 (Reuters) - Russian domestic wheat prices fell again last week with export prices rather stable, but barley prices rose on exporters' demand, analysts said on Monday.

"The main driver behind weaker prices is new crop expectations, which look better and better, as well as the readiness of grain growers, who need money, to sell stocks," SovEcon agricultural analysts said in a weekly note.

"The decline could have been more pronounced if not for a delay in the harvesting campaign caused by rains in the south." SovEcon said the EXW (exsilo) price for average third-grade milling wheat in European Russia lost 250 roubles ($8.89) to 5,725 roubles per tonne, fourth-grade, 125 roubles to 5,450 roubles, and fifth-grade feed wheat 175 roubles to 5,075 roubles per tonne. But it said feed barley added 100 roubles to 5,150 roubles per tonne.

Barley prices kept falling in the Central Black Soil region, but in the North Caucasus they rose by 300-350 roubles to 5,100-5,500 roubles. Buyers were ready to pay 5,800-5,900 roubles per tonne, delivery included, to shallow water ports, SovEcon said. "The FOB feed barley price was $255-$260 per tonne, and the CPT purchase price was 6,100-6,200 roubles per tonne," the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) said in its note.

It said the export price of wheat with 11.5 percent protein content was quite stable last week at about $235 per tonne at deep sea ports and that this reflect the price of 5,800-6,000 roubles per tonne, including delivery to Novorossiisk.

SovEcon estimated fourth-grade CPT wheat prices at Novorossiisk at 5,900-6,100 roubles per tonne.

Crude sunoil prices kept falling on the expectations of an abundant new harvest. Last week they fell to $1,372 per tonne from $1,390, IKAR said.

Rising competition between processors raised the price of the new harvest winter rapeseeds to 15,000-15,500 roubles per tonne from 14,500-15,000.

"We expect the future domestic rapeseed oil price at 36,000 (roubles per tonne) and lower," IKAR said. Russian rapeseed oil is mostly oriented to the west European market, which is providing very strong price support this season.

Soybean prices in southern Russia were unchanged at about $590 per tonne, but a decline is still possible, IKAR said.

Sugar rose to $1,098 from $1,072 and to 30,800 roubles from 30,000 roubles per tonne, following international prices.

"The domestic market has not reacted yet to the most recent exchange price decline," IKAR said. "A longer term domestic sugar price plunge looks inevitable with the abundant incoming sugar beet harvest."

Source: Reuters | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 35

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