IKAR in Mass Media

Russian wheat export prices continued to decline last week, demand low

17 октября 2023 года

Oct 16 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices continued to decline last week, amid reduced demand, analysts said.

The price of 12.5%-protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in November was $225 per metric ton last week, down $5 from the week before, the IKAR agriculture consultancy reported.

"Demand can only be found at this level," said IKAR head Dmitry Rylko.

The Sovecon agriculture consultancy sees the price for this class of wheat at $237-241 per ton FOB, down $1 from the week before.

Last week, according to traders, Egypt's GASC is believed to have bought 480,000 metric tons of Russian wheat in a private deal, traders estimating the price at about $265 a ton FOB. In addition, Egypt bought 300,000 tons of Russian wheat at $260 per ton FOB on tender.

"The lack of competition among Russian exporters again didn’t make Egypt happy but it looked like they needed to start to buy at this stage more aggressively so they accepted the new 'price floor', Sovecon noted in the report.

Russia exported 1.02 million tons of grain last week compared with 0.88 million tons a week earlier, including 1.0 million tons of wheat, compared with 0.85 million tons a week earlier, Sovecon wrote in its weekly note, citing port data.

The estimate of wheat exports in October is 4.1 million tons compared with 4.5 million tons a year ago and 4.1 million tons on average.

The wheat harvest as of Oct. 12 totalled 91.9 million tons (versus 103.6 million tons а year earlier) from 27.8 million hectares (versus 28.9 million hectares), with an average yield of 3.30 tons per hectare (3.59 tons per hectare).

Sowing of winter grains was carried out on an area of 14.2 million hectares, up from 13.4 million hectares a year earlier, Sovecon wrote.

IKAR said on Monday it had raised its forecast for Russia's grain crop this year to 141.6 million metric tonnes from 141.2 million, raising its maize crop forecast to a record 16.4 million tons.

IKAR sees Russia's potential grain exports at 64.7 million tonnes in the 2023/24 season, up from 64.5 million.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

 Product:              Most recent data:    Change from week
                                                     earlier
 - Domestic 3rd class      12,675 rbls/t         -200 rbls/t
 wheat, European part                     
 of Russia, excludes                      
 delivery (Sovecon)                       
 - Sunflower seeds         20,650 rbls/t          +50 rbls/t
 (Sovecon)                                
 - Domestic sunflower      74,675 rbls/t       -1,175 rbls/t
 oil (Sovecon)                            
 - Domestic soybeans       33,500 rbls/t         +300 rbls/t
 (Sovecon)                                
 - Export sunflower               $740/t                -$15
 oil (IKAR)                               
 - White sugar,                 $598.0/t              +16.14
 Russia's south                           
 (IKAR)

Source: Reuters | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 15

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