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IKAR in Mass Media

Russian wheat export prices dipped last week as сrop and supply forecasts rise

04 сентября 2023 года

Sept 4 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices decreased slightly last week, tracking global benchmarks, as analysts continue to raise crop and export forecasts for this season.

The price of 12.5%-protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in late September-early October was $245 per metric ton last week, down from $246 a ton week earlier, the IKAR agriculture consultancy reported.

The SovEcon agriculture consultancy sees the price for this class of wheat at $248-$250 per ton FOB, compared with $250-254 per ton a week earlier.

Last Friday, Egypt's state grains buyer, The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) failed to buy Russian wheat in a major tender, choosing instead to buy the grains in a private deal from trading firm Solaris.

According to SovEcon, the deal showed that exporters are adhering to current minimum price restrictions that unofficially exist for Russian wheat exports, which resulted in the tender being uncompetitive.

"We see that Russian exporters follow AgMin’s unofficial price floor of $270 (per ton) (FOB) at large tenders like GASC. At the same time, we know that apart from that they do sell substantially below the price floor, at least for now," Sovecon noted.

GASC bought about 480,000 metric tons of Russian wheat at a price of about $270 a ton on a cost and freight basis (C&F), traders told Reuters.

Analysts continue to raise their forecasts for this year's Russian grains harvest, with IKAR last Thursday saying it had raised its estimates this year to 140.0 million metric tons from 139.0 million tons previously. The forecast includes 91.0 million tons of wheat, up from 89.5 million tons.

SovEcon has raised estimates for total Russian wheat exports in August by 0.2 million tons to 5.3 million tons, compared with 3.5 million tons in August 2022 and an historic average of 4.7 million tons for the month.

Russia exported 1.19 million tons of grain last week compared to 1.04 million tons a week earlier, including 1.11 million tons of wheat, compared with 0.9 million tons a week earlier, SovEcon wrote in its weekly note, citing port data.

The wheat harvest as of Aug. 30 totalled 74.5 million tons (versus 84.5 million tonnes а year earlier) from 19.5 million hectares (versus 20.8 million hectares), with an average yield of 3.82 tons per hectare (4.07 tons per hectare).

This accounts for 66% of the total area to be harvested. According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, over 105 million tons of grain had already been threshed as of Aug. 30.

Sowing of winter grains was carried out an area of 2.0 million hectares, which is at the same level as the previous year, Sovecon wrote.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR:

Product:
Most recent data:
Change from week earlier

- Domestic 3rd class wheat, European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon)
13,875 rbls/t
+25 rbls/t

- Sunflower seeds (Sovecon)
26,525 rbls/t
-1,425 rbls/t

- Domestic sunflower oil (Sovecon)
81,675 rbls/t
-1,000 rbls/t

- Domestic soybeans (Sovecon)
35,000 rbls/t
-1,000 rbls/t

- Export sunflower oil (IKAR)
$805/t
-$25

- White sugar, Russia's south (IKAR)
$602.10/t
-$28.2

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 1

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