IKAR in Mass Media

Russian wheat export prices rose last week amid strong shipments

08 августа 2023 года

Russian wheat export prices rose last week amid geopolitical tensions, with the pace of shipments still high, and analysts on Monday raised their forecasts for Russian exports in the new season.

Aug 7 (Reuters) - Russian wheat export prices rose last week amid geopolitical tensions, with the pace of shipments still high, and analysts on Monday raised their forecasts for Russian exports in the new season.

According to the IKAR agriculture consultancy, the price of 12.5%-protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery at the beginning of September was $248 per metric ton last week, up from $241 a week earlier. IKAR head Dmitry Rylko said geopolitical risks, problems with the quality of wheat from the northern part of the EU wheat belt as well as problems with the quality of Russian grain were all fueling price growth.

The Russia-focused agricultural consultancy Sovecon estimates total Russian wheat exports in July at 4.4 million metric tons, compared to 2.5 million tons in July 2022 and a historic average of 2.8 million tons for the month of July. Russian wheat exports have been at record highs in recent months due to a bumper 2022 crop and large stocks. August shipments are expected to be above 5.0 million tons, Sovecon said in its note.

Sovecon on Monday raised its wheat export forecast for the 2023/24 season to a new record of 48.1 million tons. IKAR forecast Russia's grain exports at 61.0 million tons in the 2023/24 season, including 47.5 million tons of wheat, up from the previous forecasts of 58.5 and 46.0 million tons respectively.

Egypt’s GASC last week bought 300,000 metric tons of Russian wheat for $250 per ton FOB. Russia exported 1.23 million tons of grain last week compared to 930,000 tons a week earlier, including 990,000 tons of wheat compared to 900,000 tons a week earlier, Sovecon wrote in its weekly note, citing port data.

The wheat harvest as of Aug. 3 totalled 43.2 million tons (versus 46.6 million tons а year earlier) from 10.7 million hectares (versus 10.5 million hectares), with an average yield of 4.03 tons per hectare (4.44 tons per hectare). This accounts for 36% of the total area.

Source: Reuters | #grain | Comments: 0 Views: 16

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