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IKAR in Mass Media

BLACK SEA GRAINS-Russia seen back as limited exporter this year

17 июня 2011 года

MOSCOW, May 25 (Reuters) - Russia is expected to recover from last year's drought and partially restore its position as a grain exporter, substituting some shipments from the United States and Europe, a leading Russian analyst said on Wednesday.

"If the weather helps us and we have a good crop, we may partially substitute shipments by the Americans and Europeans at least in the first few months of the new crop year," said Dmitry Rylko, director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR).

IKAR expects Russian grain output to jump by as much as 38 percent this year, resulting in a exportable surplus of up to 15 million tonnes, which can make inroads on EU and U.S. sales.

"We may do this jointly with Kazakhstan and Ukraine, which also expect good crops," Rylko told the Reuters Black Sea Grains Forum in an interview.

An unusually dry and hot spring in top EU wheat producers and severe dryness in the U.S. states of Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma have revived memories of the dry summer of 2010, which ravaged Russian and Ukrainian harvests and choked off exports.

Russia's government is considering a proposal from leading grain traders and industry analysts to lift its ban on grain exports from July to the end of September, a top Russian analyst said on Tuesday. The country banned grain exports from mid-August 2010 to July 1 this year after its worst drought in a century.

SURPLUS THIS YEAR

IKAR expects Russia's grain crop this year to recover to 83-84 million tonnes, including 55 million tonnes of wheat, after drought cut the country's output to 61 million tonnes in 2010 from 97 million in 2009.

But much would depend on the weather in the coming weeks as the spring sowing campaign is in full swing in Russia's grain growing regions, Rylko said.

Weather has favoured sowing in Russia's main breadbaskets -- the Southern and North Caucasus federal districts.

The Central Black Earth region also has good weather conditions, but some rain is needed there, he said, adding that he expected the sowing campaign to pick up quickly in the Volga federal district, one of the worst hit by last year's drought.

Rylko said that dry weather in the Urals and parts of Siberia caused some worries, but rains were expected there shortly.

If the weather favoured the campaign, the country would reach its targeted spring sowing area of over 30 million hectares and it would have an exportable grain surplus of 10-15 million tonnes, Rylko said.

"Definitely not a record high volume, but it is quite sizeable," he said, although other analysts believed the country would need to rebuild stocks depleted by last year's drought, cutting the amount that would actually come to markets.

Earlier on Wednesday German commodities analyst FO Licht said Russia may export 4-4.5 million tonnes of wheat in the 2011/12 season if its export ban ends, compared to 18.6 million in the season before the ban.

NEW INVESTMENTS

Rylko said he expected Russia to recover from the drought in one or two years and he also forecast new investments in the country's agribusiness.

"If we show the world that we may keep for at least one or two years a liberal export model, then we may expect serious investments in the sector," Rylko said.

He said investments may come from various Russian exporters of energy and raw materials as well as from foreign companies, which will see Russian agriculture as an "undervalued asset".

"But if the state continues to impose rigid restrictions and bans, we will continue to develop slowly and what could be done in one or two years, will take substantially more time, maybe more than five years," Rylko said.

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 36

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