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Russian Grain Traders Prepare to Make Exports, SovEcon Says

27 мая 2011 года

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Grain traders in Russia, which barred cereal exports last year, are preparing to make foreign deliveries on prospects for an improved harvest this year, agricultural researcher SovEcon said.

Traders intensified buying of wheat, mostly the fourth-grade milling variety, about a month ago and stored the grain in silos of their own or located in ports, Managing Director Andrey Sizov Jr. said by phone today from Moscow, where SovEcon is based. The purchases stabilized average grain prices at between 5,100 rubles ($182) and 5,300 rubles a metric ton, he said.

"Yes, traders took such a position" on speculation the export ban will expire on time, said Vladimir Petrichenko, Moscow-based researcher OOO ProZerno's director. Outbound shipments may reach 20 million tons in the 2011-12 season, he said.

The ban, which took effect Aug. 15 and is scheduled to run through July 1, was imposed as Russia's worst drought in at least 50 years seared fields. The national grain crop fell 37 percent to 60.9 million tons last year. Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik said April 28 the government would discuss the ban after spring sowing.

"We consider grain exports will be resumed," Sizov said. "It can be temporary, or there can be export quotas established."

"Comfortable" Reserves

Russian grain reserves of 14 million tons, half of them held in a state-run intervention fund, are "comfortable", auguring in favor of restarting exports this year, Sizov said.

The "chances Russia opens exports continued to strengthen this week," Dmitry Rylko, general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies in Moscow, said by phone. "This relates to new estimates of carry-over stocks, harvest prospects and grain prices' dynamics in Russia."

Russia may export at least 10 million tons of grains, including 9.8 million tons of wheat, in the 2011-12 season, according to Ikar, as Rylko's institute is known. ProZerno's Petrichenko predicted deliveries of at least 17 million tons.

ProZerno raised its estimate for this year's grain harvest this week to between 89.7 million and 90 million tons from 89.7 million tons projected on May 11, Petrichenko said. He cited success by farmers in overcoming sowing delays to exceed last year's planting pace by 2.25 million hectares (5.6 million acres) as of May 17.

Increased Sowing

"The picture is even more optimistic than I thought," Petrichenko said. Russian farmers planted spring grains on 16.4 million hectares as of May 18, up 14 percent from a year earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said that day.

Carry-over stocks are estimated at between 15 million and 15.5 million tons, while the winter-crop loss rate may be below average at 7.2 percent, according to Petrichenko.

Ikar left its January estimate for a total grain harvest of 84 million tons unchanged, Rylko said. That includes 54 million tons of wheat, 1.3 million tons of legumes and 1 million tons of rice, he said.

SovEcon projects a grain crop of between 78 million and 83 million tons, Sizov said. The estimate includes between 49 million and 51 million tons of wheat, between 14 million and 14.5 million tons of barley, and between 4.8 million and 5.3 million tons of corn, he said.

Source: Bloomberg  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 66

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