IKAR in Mass Media

Russian sugar imports seen down in Feb, up later

17 февраля 2011 года

MOSCOW, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Russia's raw sugar imports are expected to decline in February from the previous month but then rise sometime in the new few months after a cut in import tariffs, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) said.

The think-tank said in a monthly sugar review on Friday that 102,000 tonnes may be imported to Russia in February, of which 65,000 tonnes are already being unloaded, down from 150,000 tonnes in January.

"Besides this volume, 483,000 tonnes of Brazilian raws are set to be shipped to Black Sea (ports), most of which will reach Russia in February-March," it said.

"The bulk of this volume, as well as no less than 150,000 tonnes of already unloaded raws will be cleared by the customs when, possibly, $50 per tonne tariff becomes effective."

The Russian government has proposed an early cut in the raw sugar import tariff to $50 per tonne from $140 -- in March rather than in May.

The proposal came after a severe drought caused a spike in Russian food prices, pushing up annual inflation to 8.8 percent in 2010 versus the government's original target of 6-7 percent, data showed last month.

But the new tariff has to be approved by Russia's partners in a customs union, Belarus and Kazakhstan, to become effective.

The customs union's executive commission sets the tariff before the 15th of every month for the following month and bases its rate on the average New York price of the preceding month. So far the commission has made no announcement.

IKAR forecasts that Russia's raw sugar imports will decline to 1.9 million tonnes this year from 2.1 million in 2010, with the bulk of shipments taking place before July. It expects a potentially record output of domestic beet sugar of 4.2 million tonnes.

IKAR's estimate is in line with the forecast by the Russian Sugar Producers' Union, the industry lobby which expects beet sugar output to exceed 4 million tonnes this year.

"Imports may be even lower if there are sales of intervention sugar between the end of February through May," IKAR's analyst Yevgeny Ivanov told Reuters.

Russia's state reserve Rosrezerv plans to supply 300,000 tonnes of sugar to the domestic market next month in order to suppress prices following the summer drought.

Russian sugar prices have been on the decline for about a month, currently reaching 34,500-34,600 roubles ($1,177-1,180) per tonne in Krasnodar, and may decline further due to weak demand, Ivanov said.

"There is no deficit of sugar in most regions," IKAR said.

Source: Reuters | #sugar | Comments: 0 Views: 71

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