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IKAR in Mass Media

Northern Ireland Weekly Market Report

29 декабря 2020 года

Prices quoted for import after the end of the UK’s transition period for leaving the EU may be subject to higher tariffs. Any such tariffs would apply on top of these indicative prices.

Grains

Wheat - A bumper crop in Australia adds to global supplies, however an export tax on Russian wheat will alter global trade flows.

Maize - Global maize prices remain firm but have been tracking sideways throughout December. The ongoing dryness in South America continues to cause trouble with planting, especially in Argentina.

Barley - Barley continues to follow wheat, however not quite at the pace of wheat. With just 10 days left until the end of EU transition period and still no trade deal agreed, there are still big question marks over export destinations if we trade on WTO terms.

Global markets - Russia announced a €25/t tax on wheat exports from 15 February 2021 until the end of the season in an effort to stabilise domestic food prices. This is expected to slow Russian shipments and helped support EU wheat prices. Because of this, IKAR reduced its Russian export forecast to 37.5Mt from the previously expected 40.0Mt.

Unfortunately, due to tight supply in the EU it is unlikely that European countries will be able to capitalise on this tax and win more export business. It is likely this business will be covered by Australian and Argentinian wheat.

This said, Stratégie Grains increased its forecast for soft wheat exports from Britain and the EU from 24.3Mt to 24.7Mt for the 2020/21 season. This increase was due to sustained French wheat sales to China, which outweighed reduced German and Polish exports.

Ukraine have finished their wheat harvest with a provisional production figure of 25.3Mt. However, the clean weight figure will not be released until January. Last year, they harvested 28.3Mt clean weight. Ukraine usually accounts for 16% of world grain exports, but so far this season (July-Nov) has fallen by 15.9% compared to the same period last year. Last year they exported 57Mt of grain, this figure could fall over 20% to 44.8Mt due to a smaller production year.

Chicago maize found support last week as the USDA released weekly export figures. They totaled 1.924Mt, well above market expectations which ranged from 800Kt to 1.6Mt. This is due to worries about shortfalls in South America due to the ongoing dryness impacting crops.

UK focus - Over the weekend, the sterling has fallen against most major currencies. This is on the back of uncertainty over the UK and EU’s trading relationship after 01 January and a new strain of coronavirus being discovered in the South East of England.

This strain is thought to be up to 70% more transmissible and led to the ban of travel from the UK to many countries in Europe and across the world. France have also closed their borders to lorries for 48 hours.

At 10.30 this morning, the pound had weakened 0.85% and 1.46% against the euro and US dollar, respectively. This has led to old crop (May-21) domestic wheat futures to rallying £2.00/t to £199.00/t at the time of writing.

On Wednesday, we will be releasing the updated Early Bird Survey results, with regional breakdowns for wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape.

Oilseeds

Rapeseed - Rapeseed prices this week have largely been dictated by soyabeans, because of South American dryness. This seems likely to continue in the next few months. Rapeseed areas in France and Germany are up year-on-year for harvest 2021.

Soyabeans - South American dryness and increase global demand is supporting oilseed markets. On-going rains are required to ensure global supplies next spring do no fall short and further tighten global supplies.

Global markets - The main driver of oilseed markets last week was the on-going weather issues in South America. The persistent dryness means worries over soyabean crops and could further tighten the supply picture for soyabeans globally.

Forecast low US soyabean inventories and strong demand from processors and overseas importers are further supporting the market. US soyabean futures (May-20) closed Friday at $449.61/t, up $20.76/t Friday to Friday.

Dryness is slowing soyabean planting in Argentina. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said last Thursday that plantings in Argentina were 67.8% complete, 2.5% behind last year. New rainfall will be necessary for sowing to progress significantly.

Many regions within South America received rain recently. However, on-going rain will be required to lower crop development anxieties.

Further to that, worker strikes in Argentina due to unsuccessful wage negotiations, are constraining export volumes which adds to the bullish sentiment in the short-term.

Across the week vegetable oil price rose too. Chicago soyoil futures gained $29.54/t across the week and Malaysian palm oil (Mar-20) was up 1.0%. Cargo Surveyor Intertek Testing Service advocated that Malaysian palm oil products exports between 1 – 20 December were up 18.9% on the same period last month.

Rapeseed focus

Support in the soyabean market filtered through to rapeseed markets. Paris rapeseed futures closed Friday at €407.25/t, gaining €6.50/t across the week.

Domestic rapeseed trade was described as being relatively quiet last week.

Delivered rapeseed (into Erith) was quoted Friday at £380.00/t, down £0.50/t across the week.

Strengthening of sterling against the euro dampened domestic gains. Trading closed Friday at £1 = €1.1019, up 0.93% across the week.

Increased areas of rapeseed are forecast in France and Germany for harvest 2021; they are estimated to be up 1.0% and 2.6% respectively (France’s Farm Ministry, Germany’s national statistics). Although an increase in the French area is estimated, the area is still down 17.0% on the 5-year-average as late summer dry weather hampered sowing.

https://farminglife.com/

Source: farminglife.com  |  #grain #oilseeds   |  Comments: 0   Views: 30

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