• IKAR in Mass Media

 

 → IKAR in Mass Media → #280

IKAR in Mass Media

ANALYSIS-Russia may import 300,000-500,000 T of U.S. maize

06 октября 2010 года

MOSCOW, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Former major grain exporter Russia, hit by drought unseen in more than a century, may have to import 300,000-500,000 tonnes of U.S. maize, a relatively small volume but without precedent in the past 10 years.

Chicago Board of Trade grain markets were buzzing on Friday with talk that Russia may be looking to make a rare purchase of U.S. maize, but analysts and cash sources were unable to confirm the rumours that helped send futures higher.

"Imports of U.S. maize are very likely after the new year to Russia's northwestern part where poultry breeding is highly developed," Andrei Sizov Jr., executive director at SovEcon agricultural analysts told Reuters.

"The region is also close to St Petersburg port and is located far from Russia's south and Ukraine its main maize suppliers."

"There are some four types of genetically modified U.S. maize, which we may import," echoed Dmitry Rylko, director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR). "Therefore imports look quite realistic."

In the last few years Russia imported grain, mainly wheat from Kazakhstan to improve flour quality, malting barley from Ukraine and the European Union for beer brewing and maize for animal feed from Ukraine.

This year the Russian grain crop is expected to fall to around 60 million tonnes from 97 million in 2009 and 108 million in 2008. Analysts and Economy Ministry officials estimate the country will have to import between 3 and 6 million tonnes of grain.

Russia last imported maize from the United States as part of a $1.5 billion food aid package in 1999 after two bad crops and the collapse of the rouble.

Russia's animal and plant health watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor allows imports of genetically modified pest resistant maize produced mainly by the world's biggest seed firm Monsanto Co for animal feed and feed mixes.

But this maize cannot be used for seed, Rosselkhoznadzor's website (fsvps.ru) said.

"Currently, U.S. maize is too expensive," Sizov said. "And an existing subsidy for transportation by rail makes Russian supplies to the region cheaper. There is also Ukraine."

But a cut in the railway fee set by the government to facilitate transportation of grain to regions worst hit by the drought will expire on Dec. 31, which will make shipments more expensive, Sizov said.

Ukraine, which is unofficially restricting exports of wheat, may also cut maize exports, he said.

"Therefore U.S. maize may become more competitive in the second half of 2010/11 crop year," Sizov said.

IMPORTS UNLIKELY TO BE LARGE

"Imports will not be big by U.S. standards, maybe some 300,000-500,000 tonnes," a market source told Reuters.

"Currently the price of maize is not sufficient to permit large-scale imports. But the prices are rising rapidly. So we will get a feel for import requirements in about two months. The bulk will come not from the United States but from Ukraine."

Russian grains prices rose last week, led by feed barley and feed maize.

The source said that a test shipment of some 200 tonnes of U.S maize took place successfully in August.

"Russia consumed some 3.8 million tonnes of maize last year," the source said.

"This year we expect Russia to produce 2.7-2.8 million tonnes. But we do not expect 1 million tonnes of maize to be imported. Either farmers will start culling domestic animals, or they will look for cheaper substitutes in animal feed."

Source: Reuters  |  #grain   |  Comments: 0   Views: 56

There are no comments yet. Be the first!

Only authorized users can comment.